Opinion: The big risks facing the world in 2024

Opinion by Frida Ghitis

(CNN) — Every year matters, every year is pivotal and every year brings surprises — good and bad. But it’s impossible to escape the sense that the world stands near a precipice and that in 2024 we will either take a step forward, upending the world order, or a step back, returning to a version of “normalcy.”

What will 2024 bring? “Predictions are tough, especially about the future,” goes the quip, a truism attributed to Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr, and many others. The obviousness highlights just how uncertain the future is — as we learned in 2020 — and how frustrating the quest for answers can be, given the magnitude of the stakes.

Without a doubt, the US election is one of the dominant concerns around the globe today. I have lost count of how many people have told me during recent travels how worried and baffled they are that Americans might return former President Donald Trump to the White House. In fact, The Economist magazine declared that “Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024,” describing him as a shadow looming over us all.

The election will determine whether Trump’s chaotic presidency with its authoritarian traits was only a fluke of US history, or whether it is the Joe Biden presidency that amounts to no more than a four-year pause in America’s descent into authoritarian isolationism.

The answer will have severe repercussions across the globe.

A second Trump presidency would almost certainly be more extreme on multiple fronts. The former president has vowed to use the Justice Department to seek vengeance against his political opponents, undermining US institutions, undercutting democracy and  flirting with dictatorship.

These actions would strengthen those who claim that Western-style democracy is a failing system, fortifying the emerging bloc of anti-Western autocracies — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — a team of tyrants that seek to challenge the West’s global influence as they, all heavily armed, threaten their neighbors.

Trump has spoken enough for US allies and adversaries to understand the risks – or potential, depending on your perspective – of a Trump 2.0 term. And his pronouncements have led America’s allies to question how committed Washington would be to their defense if he returns to office.

The former president already declared he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. He has questioned whether the US should defend South Korea and has alluded to countries like Japan and South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons to defend themselves.

The comments about Ukraine undoubtedly caught the attention of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the autocrat Trump doesn’t like to criticize, and even praised, as he encircled Ukraine.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Putin will not be satisfied with a limited victory in Ukraine, “especially not before the American election, which may present him with a much more favorable scenario.” In other words, Putin will continue attacking, hoping a Trump victory in November would pull the rug out from Washington’s support for Kyiv, helping Russia obtain total victory over Ukraine.

As countries previously under Moscow’s heel and others have warned, if Russia wins in Ukraine, Putin could see a path to reclaiming other parts of the former Soviet empire, perhaps trying to conquer tiny Moldova and even the Baltic states that are now members of NATO.

NATO is supposed to defend all its members, but Trump has already cast doubt on whether the US would help an embattled ally. Despite the recent bipartisan approval of a bill that would ban a president from unilaterally withdrawing the US from NATO without congressional approval, the president would have wide latitude in responding to global military challenges.

We see this almost daily during today’s crises, as Biden has ordered US warships to the Mediterranean and the Red Sea in an effort to prevent the expansion of the war between Israel and Hamas — a conflict that already threatens to become regional — or repeatedly sends stern messages vowing support for Taiwan as a warning to China, whose leader just repeated his vow to reunify the island.

If the US stands back as Putin pushes his neo-imperialist goals, China could be tempted to try its hand at seizing Taiwan and further bullying its neighbors. The very prospect of an emboldened China would deal a blow to nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

It would also trigger global tremors of volatility. The end of Pax Americana, however flawed, would propel more midsize powers to take up arms against their rivals.

And yet, Trump may not win the election. If Biden is reelected, the chances of restoring global stability are much greater. But they are far from assured.

In fact, the US is just one of scores of countries set to hold elections, including important nations such as Mexico, India, Indonesia, Russia and the UK. The outcome of some are preordained; Russia’s election, for example, is a charade. But others could signal new directions in the years ahead.

One thing we do know is that no one lives forever. Key world figures — Biden, Trump, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamanei — are in their late 70s and 80s. Khamenei was said to be ill in 2022, but his office has denied the reports. We don’t know who will succeed him, how radical his successor will be, or how Iranians will respond when the moment comes.

Lest we forget, 2024 will also surely bring happy surprises. We don’t know what (they are surprises!), but there’s a considerable chance that problems could be resolved for the better.

I’m generally not pessimistic about the future. Today, the US is in good hands. The economy is doing remarkably well. The West, despite its challenges, is united. People everywhere prefer freedom to bondage. Many dark scenarios have a flip side, a potentially happy outcome. Much of it is up to the people making decisions, from voters to world leaders. And countless people around the planet are working to secure a better future.

The very notion that we stand on the edge of the precipice can motivate us to take a step back, away from the abyss, and turn toward a more peaceful, promising path.

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