El Nino on the Horizon

El Nino, it sparks hope in some, fear in others.

The phenomenon occurs with a portion of the Pacific Ocean warms at the surface, enhancing storm development, and changing storms patterns in the continental US. It often means more–sometimes excessive–rainfall in the Western US, including right here in California.

According to Brandt Maxwell of the National Weather Service in San Diego, “El Nino is a condition where you have warmer than normal temperatures in the East Pacific, and that results in more storms, typically over California, especially because we have a Jet Stream that tends to be near our latitude.”

The two most recent strongest El Nino events: 1982-83, and 1997-98… In those years, California saw significant impacts from heavy rainfall. Mud slides, flooding, damage to roads, bridges and property. Will it happen again?

Maxwell says, “It’s primarily if you’re in a burn area; for instance there’s a burn area to the south of big bear that is definitely going to be prone to mud slides. If you are outside of burn the risk is moderate but there is certainly still a risk if we get excessive rainfall over a short period of time.”

Given the likelihood of heavy rains from December in February (our usual “rainy season”) the fear of flooding and property damage is real. Heavy rains in recent years have done enormous damage in La Quinta, Indian Wells, and other parts of the Valley. What should you do to prepare?

Maxwell suggests that, “If you’re in a place that can get flooding, it’s a good idea to invest in sandbags, also be aware of the weather forecast. If heavy rain is expected, be cautious while driving. Never drive into flood waters, and just be aware of the forecast.”

State Senator Jeff Stone has encouraged all Californians to buy flood insurance, even if you live a place that has not previously flooded…

In the years following the 1997-98 El Nino floods, the Valley took action, building bridges over wash areas, along Portola and Washington, to prevent flooding from isolating parts of the Valley..

Certain roads, like Frank Sinatra in Rancho Mirage, run right through the wash, and is frequently closed when we see heavy rains. This road has been the site of swift water rescues in the past, because many people still attempt to cross flooded roadways despite our warnings never to do so!

But El Nino is not without benefits, potential heavy snow in the San Bernardino Mountains means a better ski and tourist season, and a bigger snow pack in the Sierra is good news for the water supply…

Maxwell tell us, “We most likely will have above normal snowfall, one thing to keep in mind is that El Nino storms tend to be warmer, so we could get rain even up to the ski resort levels, but generally speaking, we expect a stormier winter, with more snow at the higher mountains, and more rain at the lower elevations.”

Even if we get the forecasted heavier rain and snow, it does not mean that the drought is over:

It DOES mean you need to be prepared.