White Christmas hopes could be dashed by a big weather pattern change in December’s second half

<i>Gary Hershorn/Getty Images via CNN Newsource</i><br/>Snow falls in New York near the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree on December 14.

By CNN Newsource

Published December 16, 2025 4:35 AM

By Meteorologist Chris Dolce

Cold and snowy weather has gripped much of the northern tier of the United States since Thanksgiving, but a pattern change will torch the chance of white Christmas for many.

A white Christmas is when at least 1 inch of snow is on the ground on the morning of December 25, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Arctic air has made frequent surges across the Midwest, Northeast and South for weeks, including the coldest of the bunch this past weekend. That’s allowed winter storms to cover a large chunk of the northern states with snow.

But the big question is: How much snow will stick around for Christmas Day since a big jet stream pattern shift is promising a meltdown?

Milder temperatures could fade hopes of a white Christmas

December’s cold start has been spurred on by a wavy north-to-south oriented jet stream driving frequent bouts of Arctic air into the central and eastern states from Canada. This persistent weather pattern is tied to the disruption of the polar vortex at the end of November.

Now, the jet stream is about to smooth out and take a more level west-to-east path across the country. When that happens, it tends to act like a wall, blocking any long-lasting bouts of cold air from coming too far south out of Canada.

A large area of the US is expected to see warmer-than-average temperatures for the rest of December as a result, according NOAA. The exception is the far northern tier, which could see thermometers hover right around or just below the norm for this time of year.

Some of the snow on the ground in the Midwest and Northeast will melt away because of the milder temperatures. Rainfall will also play a role, especially from a storm system that will bring downpours as far north as Michigan and Maine late this week.

Forecast models show much of the snow Christmas morning will be in the places that usually have the best shot at a waking up to a white blanket outside their windows on the holiday: the Mountain West, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, northern New England and the Great Lakes snow belts.

The caveat? It’s too soon to tell if any storm systems next week might save the day and bring new snowfall. Add that possibility to your wishlist for Santa if you’re still dreaming of a white Christmas, but right now, the odds of that happening look slim.

White Christmas chances are usually low for most

History tells us the odds of a white Christmas are less than a coin flip for most of the Lower 48.

If you want a nearly-guaranteed white Christmas, then head to a ski resort in the West or northern New England, or cities like Marquette, Michigan, and Duluth, Minnesota. Those locations have odds that are 90% or higher, based on data from 1991-2020.

Minneapolis-St. Paul has one of the highest chances for a major city at 74%.

In other large cities like Chicago and New York, the chances drop off sharply to 34% and 13%, respectively. Even in Denver and Salt Lake City, the chance is less than 50%.

Of course, the South has the lowest likelihood, but there have been some rare instances.

In 2004, a snowstorm on Christmas Eve in South Texas reached all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast, setting up a strange Christmas scene of palm trees blanketed by snow.