Trump is turning to a Putin ally to help America’s farmers. But there’s a big catch

By Matt Egan, CNN

New York (CNN) — President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canada has thus far spared one critical import for American farmers: potash, a crucial fertilizer component and plant nutrient that has virtually no substitute.

But that could change as the trade battle lingers and Canadian officials weigh options to retaliate beyond tariffs.

Trump suggested this week he’s found an alternative to Canada’s stranglehold on US potash supplies: Belarus, a completely landlocked country thousands of miles away from America’s farm country that is run by a strongman ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump said on Truth Social that he’s working on a “massive Deal” to buy potash from Belarus at a much cheaper price than Canada, which supplied about 90% of US potash imports last year.

Trump framed the talks as “very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.”

But there are multiple obstacles to pivoting the US potash supply, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s doubts about a deal. Just hours before Trump’s post, Lukashenko said his country “cannot supply large volumes” of potash to the United States because its supplies have already been spoken for this year.

The United States slapped a 50% tariff on many goods from Canada this summer – but critical imports, such as potash, crude oil and electricity, were spared. Trump’s scramble to tout the US talks with Belarus underscores the pressure from American farmers, who are slammed by surging diesel and fertilizer costs linked to the war with Iran.

Some analysts doubt a deal with Belarus, a sanctioned nation thousands of miles away, would alleviate America’s long-standing reliance on Canadian potash. Canada supplied about 90% of the 13 million tons of potassium fertilizer imported last year, according to federal data.

“It’s not realistic at all. It’s prohibitively expensive to remove Belarusian material,” said Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Due to European sanctions on Belarus, Maxwell estimates that it would cost about $200 per metric ton for Belarus to deliver potash to the United States before profit margins. That’s sharply higher than the $130-per-metric-ton cost for potash from America’s neighbors to the north.

In 2021, prior to import restrictions imposed on Belarus, the United States imported about 700,000 tons of potassium fertilizer from Belarus, accounting for 5% of total imports, according to federal data.

Chris Krueger, global head of macro research at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, noted that Belarusian potash is already largely committed to Asia and the logistics of shipping it to the United States would be “challenging.”

“We remain skeptical,” Krueger wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.

Scott Lincicome, vice president of the libertarian think tank Cato Institute, was more blunt.

“Look, if you can’t laugh at the president desperately promising angry farmers that he’ll magically replace massive quantities of fertilizer from our nextdoor military ally with small imaginary quantities from a tinpot authoritarian thousands of miles away, then you simply have no sense of humor,” Lincicome posted on X.

Businesses are already grappling with supply chain turmoil and price hikes unleashed by the Iran war. Anything that makes it harder or more expensive to purchase Canada’s potash would make matters worse.

Nitrogen-based fertilizer prices increased by 22% year-over-year in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index.

Producer prices on diesel, a critical fuel that powers trucks, tractors and trains, surged by 78% in August, according to the BLS. That trend is not likely to fade as diesel continues to hit all-time highs in September.

Goldman Sachs warned clients earlier this month that global food prices are at risk of going sharply higher due in part to soaring diesel and fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

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CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report.