With slight strengthening overnight, Tropical Storm Hone moves closer to Hawaii, flood watch in effect
By Carly Yoshida
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HONOLULU (KITV) — Tropical Storm Hone’s satellite appearance remains largely unchanged from previous reports as it moves closer to Hawai’i.
There is only minimal deep convection near its center. Recent intensity estimates from various sources show mixed results: 2.5 from PHFO, 2.0 from SAB and JTWC, and objective measurements of 35 to 38 knots from UW-CIMSS. Based on last night’s observations of 35 to 40 knot winds in the eastern part of Hone, the initial intensity remains set at 40 knots.
A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is on its way to provide crucial data about Hone’s intensity, structure, and size.
Currently, Hone is moving west at 14 knots. This trend is expected to continue for the next few days as it is guided by a subtropical ridge to the north. By early next week, as this ridge weakens, Hone is expected to slow down and turn slightly west-northwest. Mid-week, Hone may weaken further due to increasing wind shear and shift back westward as it follows the trade winds.
In the short term, environmental conditions around Hone will remain relatively stable. With low to moderate wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures around 26-27°C, only gradual strengthening is anticipated. There is, however, a chance for intensification on Sunday and Monday as Hone moves south of the Hawaiian Islands, where sea temperatures are slightly warmer and wind shear is lighter. This could potentially bring Hone to hurricane strength.
Beyond day 3, stronger westerly wind shear and drier air are expected to weaken Hone. The forecasted intensity reflects a blend of consensus guidance and dynamical models, with expected weakening from days 4 to 5.
Tropical Cyclone Gilma’s cloud pattern has become less organized since the last report. The eye has become less distinct, and the central dense overcast appears more ragged. Recent satellite intensity estimates have been declining, leading to a reduction in Gilma’s initial intensity to 100 knots.
Gilma continues its westward motion, now moving at 7 knots. Over the next few days, a high-pressure ridge is expected to build over the eastern North Pacific as a deep-layer trough north of Gilma moves out. This change should cause Gilma to shift to a west-northwestward or westward track at a faster pace. Due to the recent westward shift, the forecast track has been adjusted slightly south and west, aligning with updated consensus models.
The hurricane is moving toward cooler waters, expected to cross the 26°C temperature boundary in about 36 hours, and into a drier, more stable air mass. These conditions will likely lead to gradual weakening over the next 60 hours. After this period, increasing wind shear and sea surface temperatures dropping to around 25°C are expected to accelerate the weakening process. Gilma is projected to weaken to a remnant low by 120 hours. The updated intensity forecast reflects this downward trend.
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