US stocks move higher on hopes for an end to war with Iran, but it’s been a volatile month
By John Towfighi, CNN
New York (CNN) — US stocks rallied sharply Tuesday to close out one of the roughest months and quarters in years.
The Dow rose by 1,125 points, or 2.49%. The S&P 500 gained 2.9% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 3.8%. All three experienced their best trading day since May.
The rebound came after reports and comments from the Trump administration about potentially ending the war soon, albeit without a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz. But an unconfirmed rumor that Iran’s president may be open to discussing an end to the war, with conditions, sent stocks even higher around midday.
Stocks moved on a report that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had issued a statement that Iran is ready to end the war in exchange for security guarantees. State media later confirmed the statement.
The cautious move in oil prices and relatively muted decline in Treasury yields suggest investors remain somewhat skeptical about an immediate end to the war.
Wall Street entered the month of March trading just below record highs. But the war with Iran has rocked markets, sending the Dow and Nasdaq into correction territory.
Ultimately, Tuesday’s strong gains were not nearly enough to erase the steep declines for the month and quarter.
The Dow shed 8%, its worst month since September 2022. For the quarter it lost 6%, the worst quarter since September 2022 as well.
The Nasdaq closed out the quarter down 7%, its worst since the first quarter of 2022, when it shed more than 10%. For the month, it lost 5%, its worst since last March.
The S&P 500 declined by 5.1% in March, its worst month since last March. For the quarter, it lost 7.33%, the worst since June 2022.
Oil prices have surged this month, raising concerns about energy inflation, clouding the outlook for central banks and posing headwinds for stocks. It’s been a volatile month as traders have navigated headlines out of the Middle East and shifting forecasts for how the Federal Reserve might respond to concerns about inflation and economic growth.
Stocks rallied Tuesday on hopes for more guidance on when the conflict might come to a close after the Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump discussed ending the war. Traders have been grappling with uncertainty about the duration of the war.
While stocks rallied, some investors are cautious about the outlook. Oil prices traded above $100 per barrel Tuesday while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is up almost 50% this month.
“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed…and thus oil prices remain extremely elevated…it’s going to be very tough for the stock market to form the bottom for this decline,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co, said in a note.
CNN’s Fear and Greed Index traded in “extreme fear” and hit its lowest level since November.
Stocks were also buoyed by hopes that the Fed might resume cutting interest rates later this year. Markets have gyrated as traders try to discern the outlook for the Fed. Treasury yields fell as investors bought bonds, reversing course after surging higher this month.
The US dollar index fell slightly Tuesday. The dollar index is up 2.6% this month and on track for its best month since July, benefitting from safe haven demand.
“All eyes will remain on the price of oil and news out of the Middle East,” Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, said in a note. “As tensions ebb and flow from the region, so will the direction of the markets.”
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CNN’s David Goldman and Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report.
