‘It’s devastating’: The US-Canada trade war is putting protein on the menu

By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

(CNN) — Attention, protein maxers: One of your highly coveted ingredients is taking center stage in the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada.

Whey, the workhorse ingredient behind protein powders and a growing universe of high-protein foods, is getting caught in the crossfire.

Canada imposed 50% tariffs on American whey, while many Canadian whey products are about to be banned outright in the United States. For the protein-obsessed, the pain won’t be evenly distributed: Canadians are facing a much bigger squeeze, but Americans aren’t off the hook either.

“If there’s no tariff relief, it’s devastating for consumers, retailers and us,” said Jim McMahon, CEO of Fit Foods LP, a British Columbia-based manufacturer of whey protein powder.

The scramble to get ahead of tariffs

The escalating trade war between the once-friendly trading partners entered a new, more vicious chapter last month: US President Donald Trump imposed 50% duties on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods in response to alleged “increased discrimination against U.S. commerce.”

Canada’s dairy industry was singled out, with the Trump administration arguing that its quotas unfairly limit how much US dairy farmers can sell in Canada before steep tariffs kick in. Trump then applied 50% duties on many Canadian dairy products, including whey.

(The US has its own tariff-rate quotas for dairy, which similarly allow limited quantities of certain imports at lower tariff rates before higher tariffs apply.)

After Canadian Minister Mark Carney matched the US tariffs with dollar-for-dollar tariffs, Trump retaliated by banning American businesses from buying a slew of Canadian-made products. This included whey protein concentrate, the cheese byproduct commonly used in protein snacks and powders.

McMahon said he purchases all his whey from the US since the type of processed whey he uses has very limited availability in Canada.

While Canadian farmers produce whey, it’s far less than in the US, where cheese production is much greater. As a result, there aren’t many processing facilities in Canada to turn whey into higher protein forms.

Before Canada’s 50% tariffs on US goods took effect on September 8, McMahon said he rushed to stockpile whey. McMahon said he had to borrow money to cover the cost — including rush fees and storage — for six months’ worth of inventory.

McMahon’s pain is shared across many protein food producers in Canada.

“Economic tools can be turned on and off fairly quickly. Supply chains can’t,” Aaron Skelton, president of trade organization Canadian Health Food Association, told CNN. The group represents small-to-medium natural, organic and wellness food businesses.

“We’re really hearing challenges with evaluating what alternatives (to whey) might be available,” he said.

But it’s not easy to substitute whey with, say, pea protein, which isn’t subject to 50% tariffs. Making the switch can require reformulating the entire product and upending its supply chain — a change that could lead to higher prices.

A protein pint of ice cream a day…

People like Chris Line, 36, of Madison, Wisconsin, embody why whey protein has grown so much in popularity.

Line is a legal counselor at Freedom From Religion Foundation, a nonprofit advocating for the separation of church and state. He weighed 450 pounds in June 2017 and lost 255 pounds in 18 months without taking GLP-1s, which weren’t approved weight loss drugs at the time.

It all boiled down to consistent exercise — working his way up to jogging 15 miles to 25 miles a day — and diet. On the latter, he turned to protein, mostly in the form of shakes, lean meats and eggs.

Last year, though, Line broke his foot and grew concerned about falling back on old eating habits, especially with the hit to physical activity. A doctor prescribed him a GLP-1.

For many GLP-1 users, the curbed cravings and weight loss can often come with a less desirable side effect: muscle loss. To maintain muscle, doctors and nutritionists often recommend that users increase their protein intake.

Line has had no problem hitting his goal for around 280 grams of protein a day. With the help of his Ninja Creami, he said he estimates he can make 100 different flavors of ice cream using an ever-expanding array of flavored whey protein powder flavors — including pumpkin spice roll, apple pie and piña colada — or flavored water packets with nonflavored powder, alongside a few other ingredients.

And whey has a milky flavor by nature, making it easier to disguise into ice cream.

But his whey fixation isn’t cheap. Though he hunts for deals, he estimates he spends around $35 per carton of protein powder, which lasts about six to seven days. With recent news of whey shortages and price increases, he’s been building a stockpile he estimates could last a few months.

Back in April, some American whey protein concentrate suppliers said they were already sold out of product for the rest of the year, the US Department of Agriculture reported. This came as wholesale prices were rapidly rising and buyers were getting nervous about not having enough on hand to last the rest of the year, Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of agricultural data provider Ever.Ag Insights, told CNN.

By June, whey protein concentrate hit a record of $13 per pound, according to USDA data, a 250% increase from the same time last year. While wholesale prices have since settled to around $10 to $11 a pound, American and Canadian consumers have yet to experience the full effect of the price spikes.

“I suspect that ready-to-mix and ready-to-eat products with whey will see some price inflation through year-end and into early next year,” Wolfley said.

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