Why are there mass protests in Iran, and could the US get involved?
By Mostafa Salem, CNN
(CNN) — Anti-government protests have erupted across all 31 of Iran’s provinces in a wave of unrest that marks the biggest challenge to the regime in years.
An ongoing communications shutdown, which experts say is unprecedented in its scale, was imposed by authorities on Thursday and has mostly isolated the country from the outside world amid the deadly unrest.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to attack Iran if its security forces respond with force against protesters, as rights groups report that nearly 2,000 people have been killed and thousands more arrested.
As public anger continues to build, here’s what you need to know.
What triggered the protests?
The protests began around two weeks ago in Tehran’s bazaars over rampant inflation but have spread to more than 180 cities and towns across the country, morphing into general protests against the regime.
Concerns over inflation came to a head when the prices of basic goods such as cooking oil and chicken dramatically spiked, with some products vanishing from shelves altogether.
Exacerbating the situation was a decision by the central bank to end a program allowing some importers to access cheaper US dollars compared to the rest of the market. This led shopkeepers to increase prices and some to shut their doors, sparking the demonstrations.
The move by the bazaaris, as shopkeepers in the bazaars are known, is a drastic measure for a group traditionally supportive of the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s reformist government attempted to alleviate the pressure by offering direct cash handouts of almost $7 per month to the entire population, but the move failed to quell the unrest.
How widespread are the protests, and how many people have died?
The unrest is the biggest in scale since 2022, when the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the religious police prompted the widespread “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests.
Fueled by poverty and sometimes ethnic inequality, crowds chanted “Death to Khamenei,” directly challenging Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over the nation’s religious and state affairs.
As of Tuesday, at least 1,850 protesters have been killed, according to US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). It also said at least 16,784 individuals have been arrested. CNN could not independently verify the numbers of those killed or arrested.
Iranian authorities cut internet and telephone lines the night of January 8 local time. However, people were able to use some landline and mobile phones to call abroad on Tuesday for the first time since the communications blackout took effect.
How are the protests different this time?
The fact that the recent protests began with the bazaaris — a powerful force for change in Iran’s history and seen as loyal to the regime — is notable.
The enduring alliance between the bazaaris and Iran’s Shiite Muslim clergy gave the shopkeepers a crucial role as kingmakers across Iran’s recent history. It was their support of those clerics that eventually helped the Islamic Revolution of 1979 succeed, giving the revolutionaries a financial backbone as they struggled to overthrow the shah, or monarch.
“For more than 100 years of Iranian history, bazaaris have been key actors in all of Iran’s major political movements,” Arang Keshavarzian, a professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies at New York University and author of “Bazaar and State in Iran,” told CNN. “Many observers do believe that the bazaaris are some of the most loyal to the Islamic Republic.”
Their role as a major political force has become more symbolic, but the impact of fluctuations in currency on their businesses is what led them to spark the protests that have since turned deadly.
Authorities have also sought to differentiate between economic protesters and those calling for regime change, branding the latter as “rioters” and foreign-backed “mercenaries” and warning of a tougher crackdown against them.
Hurt by Israel’s large-scale infiltration and strikes last year, Iran’s regime moved swiftly to brand those demanding change as enemies of the state. The emergence of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the deposed shah, as an alternative leader was equally striking, as he actively rallied protesters and called for them to take to the streets.
This round of protests feels different from previous ones because of a sense of frustration and exhaustion among people in Iran, said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East lead for Bloomberg Economics based in Geneva.
“It’s reached a boiling point,” Esfandiary said. “I anticipate that the Islamic Republic that we’re seeing today is one unlikely to see 2027. I really think there is going to be some change.”
The influence of the Iranian regime has also been substantially weakened compared to previous periods of unrest, in the wake of Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel. Israel responded by launching a campaign to root out Tehran’s proxies from the region, and both Israel and the United States struck Iranian nuclear facilities last year.
Who runs Iran, and what is the regime doing about the unrest?
Iran has been a theocracy since 1979, when clerics toppled a secular monarch allied with the West, leading to the formation of the Islamic Republic led by Khamenei’s predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Masoud Pezeshkian was elected president in 2024, promoting a more pragmatic foreign policy, but his powers are limited, and Khamenei calls the shots on all major matters of state.
On Sunday, Pezeshkian blamed his country’s ongoing unrest on foreign-linked “terrorists,” who he said were burning bazaars, mosques and cultural sites. He also said last year’s 12-day war between Israel and Iran has led his country “into chaos.”
Some protesters could face the death penalty for their actions, Tehran’s prosecutor, Ali Salehi, said Friday, according to the semi-official news agency Tasnim.
Salehi said acts of vandalism targeting public property carried out as part of the anti-regime demonstrations will be considered “moharebeh,” translated as “waging war against God.” The punishment for moharebeh includes execution.
Pezeshkian previously positioned himself as a champion of the working classes, promising economic relief through reduced government intervention in the currency market while also blaming US sanctions, corruption and excessive money printing.
But corruption across all parts of government, mismanagement of funds and the convergence of environmental problems and stagnant leadership has taken the leadership to the brink.
“None of Iran’s political leaders have a blueprint to get Iran out the crises,” Keshavarzian, the associate professor, told CNN.
“The only tool that the Islamic Republic truly has left is coercion and force. People have tried different methods to air their views,” he added. “But over the past 15 years, large segments of the population have lost trust in the regime.”
What have Trump and Khamenei said?
Trump said his administration is monitoring the deadly protests in Iran and is continuing to weigh potential military options. He declared in a message Tuesday that “help is on the way” for protesters.
Trump said Tuesday that he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, suggesting the window of diplomacy that he saw opening days ago has closed. Iran’s foreign minister had said the day before that his country was ready to negotiate with the US based on “mutual respect and interests.”
In a message on Truth Social, Trump encouraged protesters to keep up the demonstrations. “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” Trump wrote.
“Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price,” he went on. “I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
He ended by writing “MIGA,” or Make Iran Great Again.
The US president earlier announced consequences for countries that do businesses with Iran: a 25% tariff, “effective immediately.”
On Monday, Khamenei warned US politicians to “stop their deception” and not rely on what he called “treacherous mercenaries,” in a statement published by Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB).
Khamenei also thanked Iranians who participated in Monday’s pro-government rallies, saying the demonstrations thwarted external plots against the country.
Khamenei previously called on Trump to “focus on the problems of his own country.”
“There are some agitators who want to please the American president by destroying public property. A united Iranian people will defeat all enemies,” he said Friday.
“The Islamic Republic will not back down in the face of those who are looking to destroy us,” Khamenei added.
CNN’s Billy Stockwell, Kara Fox, Max Saltman, Adam Pourahmadi, Charlotte Reck, Aditi Sangal, Betul Tuncer, Piper Hudspeth Blackburn, Todd Symons and Helen Regan contributed to this report.
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