China is building submarines faster than ever, think tank says. Why that’s a problem for Washington
By Brad Lendon, CNN
(CNN) — China has ramped up its production of nuclear-powered submarines over the past five years to the point where it is launching subs faster than the United States, threatening to negate a sea-power advantage that has long belonged to Washington, a new think tank report says.
The buildup in the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s nuclear-powered sub force includes both ballistic-missile and attack subs, the report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says.
During the years 2021 to 2025, China’s submarine building surpassed that of the US in both numbers of subs launched – 10 to 7 – and tonnage – 79,000 to 55,500, says the report, which looked at shipyard satellite imagery to draw estimates of China’s construction.
Beijing does not disclose fleet numbers.
It’s a stark turnaround from the 2016 to 2020 period, when China only added three subs (23,000 tons) to the US Navy’s seven (55,500 tons), according to the IISS analysis.
The numbers represent subs launched but not necessarily completed and added to the active-duty fleet, where the US still maintains a large advantage.
As of early 2025, China had 12 active nuclear-powered submarines, six ballistic-missile boats and six guided-missile or attack boats, according to the IISS’ “Military Balance 2025.” The US had 65 total subs, with 14 of those being ballistic-missile boats.
China also maintains a large conventionally powered sub fleet, with 46 boats, according to the “Military Balance.”
The US has zero conventionally powered subs which – unlike nuclear-powered subs – need to refuel regularly.
To accommodate its nuclear-powered sub fleet growth, Beijing has significantly expanded the Huludao yard of Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. in northern China, according to the report, headlined “Boomtime at Bohai.”
It comes after a Congressional Research Service report to Congress last month said the US Navy is falling well behind its submarine-building goal of two Virginia-class attack boats per year, with US shipyards delivering only 1.1 to 1.2 subs a year since 2022.
The US is also building new Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarines, but that program is at least a year behind schedule, with first-in-the-class USS District of Columbia not expected to be delivered to the Navy until 2028, the admiral in charge of the program told Breaking Defense last week.
“The greater numbers in the water present a growing challenge to (the US and other Western) countries as they struggle to increase their own output,” the IISS report says.
The IISS report highlights two Type 094 ballistic-missile subs (SSBNs) that have been launched at the Huludao shipyard. With the ability to fire nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the Type 094s add to Beijing’s growing nuclear triad of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers, it says.
And China has even better SSBNs in the works, the IISS says.
“The Type-096, is still expected to begin production at Bohai this decade, entering service either in the late 2020s or early 2030s,” it says.
Besides the SSBNs, the PLA Navy’s nuclear-powered launch numbers for the past five years include at least six guided-missile sub (SSGN) hulls, the report says. These boats have the vertical launch system (VLS), which could be used to fire new high-speed anti-ship missiles displayed at China’s Victory Day parade in Beijing last fall.
But the IISS report isn’t all bad news for Washington and its allies.
“Chinese designs almost certainly lag behind US and European boats in terms of quality,” the report says.
The newest Chinese subs are not believed to be as quiet as US ones, leaving the stealth advantage to the US Navy.
Still, experts say, in naval combat, the larger force usually prevails. And China already possesses the world’s-largest fleet of destroyers, frigates and surface combatants.
Meanwhile, Washington has struggled to keep up.
Navy Secretary John Phelan last summer told a US House of Representatives hearing that US naval construction was in dire straits.
“All of our programs are a mess,” Phelan said.
“I think our best one is six months late and 57% over budget … That is the best one,” he testified.
When it comes to submarine numbers over the next five years, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report says US attack sub numbers are expected to hit the “bottom of the valley” to 47 in 2030, as aging Los Angeles-class attack boats are retired.
An increase to 50 attack subs is not expected until 2032 – if construction goals are reached – the report says. But it notes that plans to sell three to five Virginia-class subs to Australia as part of the AUKUS deal could hamper plans to increase the US fleet in the short term.
The upcoming sub force “valley” was first noted in 1995, the CRS report says, adding, it “could lead to a period of heightened operational strain for the SSN force, and perhaps a period of weakened conventional deterrence against potential adversaries such as China.”
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