World anxiously waits to see if US-Iran peace talks can deliver. Here’s what we know

By Lex Harvey, CNN

(CNN) — The lives of millions of people across the Middle East – and the fate of the global economy – will hinge on the outcome of make-or-break talks between the United States and Iran, which began this weekend in Pakistan.

The two sides are talking directly to each other, Iranian sources told CNN, making these the highest-level face-to-face negotiations between Iran and the US since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

A fragile two-week ceasefire that paved the way for the talks is holding for now. But Israel’s massive and deadly bombardment of Lebanon and disagreements over whether Lebanon is included in the truce could derail the uneasy calm.

The key question now is whether the talks will produce some sort of middle ground – or whether they will collapse and restart a war that has already wrought destruction across parts of the Middle East and sparked a historic global oil crisis.

Here’s what we know:

Who will be at the talks?

Trilateral talks between the US and Iran, with Pakistan serving as mediator, began Saturday, a senior White House official said.

The US delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son in law.

Prior to his departure for Islamabad, Vance told reporters “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive.”

Meanwhile, Tehran’s delegation, which consists of around 70 people including technical experts, is led by the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, according to Iranian media. A regime insider with a reputation for suppressing dissent, Ghalibaf has emerged as a key interlocutor with the Trump administration throughout the war. Many of Iran’s leaders have been killed by US-Israeli strikes in recent weeks.

He is be accompanied by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who has participated extensively in past nuclear negotiations with Western powers, and Ali Bagheri Kani, a key hardline negotiator who has also been instrumental in previous talks with the US.

Both negotiating teams met separately with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif before the talks. Sharif later “expressed the hope that these talks would serve as a stepping stone towards durable peace in the region,” his office wrote in a statement.

What will they talk about?

Given the two sides can’t seem to agree about what’s in the ceasefire, aligning on the agenda for the talks may be tricky.

Trump has cited “a 10-point proposal from Iran,” which he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

But then Iran began sharing a 10-point list that included demands the US could never agree to, such as acknowledging its control over the Strait of Hormuz and reparations for war damages and the lifting of all sanctions. Other versions published on state media also included recognizing the country’s right to nuclear enrichment.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had been referring to a different 10-point plan that was “more reasonable.”

Meanwhile Trump and his team have their own 15-point proposal. That plan has not been revealed in full but is said to include Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, handing over its highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking at Joint Base Andrews Friday, Trump said his main focus in a deal with Iran is curtailing the country’s nuclear program.

“No nuclear weapon. That’s 99% of it,” he said.

What is happening in Lebanon?

Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire is an ongoing matter of contention which also risks upending the truce.

Iran has repeatedly said the ceasefire covers attacks against its Lebanon-based proxy Hezbollah, echoing the stance of Pakistan, which helped broker the deal. But Israel and the US insist the ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

On Wednesday, just hours after the ceasefire came into effect, Israel launched its most ferocious wave of strikes in Lebanon since the war began, pounding busy neighborhoods without warning, killing at least 357 people and wounding more than 1,200, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. It marked Lebanon’s deadliest day since September 2024.

The attacks drew ire from Iran, which said talks could not begin without a ceasefire in Lebanon, and caused an international backlash.

Vance said there had been a “legitimate misunderstanding” regarding Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire, adding that the Israelis may “check themselves a little bit.”

Following a “tense” phone call with Trump, according to a US and Israeli source, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will seek direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah even as it continued striking the country on Friday and Saturday.

Lebanon’s prime minister was expected to travel to Washington in the coming days, a Lebanese government source told CNN, but he postponed that trip Saturday, saying he must stay in Beirut to oversee his government’s work.

Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are also set to meet in Washington next week to discuss ceasefire negotiations.

What about the Strait of Hormuz?

Reopening the critical waterway, which has been effectively shuttered by Iran for weeks, wreaking havoc on global oil markets, was another part of the deal, according to the White House.

But since the ceasefire, only a handful of vessels have been able to pass through the chokepoint, and Iran said it halted tanker traffic after Israel attacked Lebanon. Hundreds of vessels are still stuck in the Persian Gulf with thousands of crew on board.

Vance on Thursday reiterated that if Iran does not follow through on promises to reopen the strait, the ceasefire will end.

And Trump claimed Saturday that the US is “clearing out the Strait of Hormuz,” without specifying what that entails. CNN has reached out to US Central Command for more information.

Will the talks achieve anything?

It’s hard to say whether the gulf between the two sides will be bridged over a weekend in Pakistan.

Both the US and Iran have expressed cautious optimism that negotiations could lead to a deal.

Trump told NBC he was “very optimistic” about a peace deal out of this weekend’s talks in Islamabad, telling the outlet that Iran’s leaders seemed open to peace in private discussions.

“They’re much more reasonable,” he told NBC. “They’re agreeing to all the things that they have to agree to. Remember, they’ve been conquered. They have no military.”

“We have goodwill, but we do not trust,” Iran’s top negottiator Ghalibaf said as he arrived in Islamabad, Iran’s state media reported.

Ghalibaf said if the US is “ready for a genuine agreement,” then Iran could be as well.

“Unfortunately, our experience of negotiating with the Americans has always ended in failure and violations of commitments,” he added.

According to sources familiar with the ceasefire talks, the weekend meeting is expected to be the first of several intense negotiations regarding a longer term, lasting deal to end the war.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

Ross Adkin, Jessie Yeung, Michael Rios, Maureen Chowdhury, Dana Karni, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Tal Shalev, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Tamara Qiblawi, Charbel Mallo, Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Sophie Tanno, Magdalena Sofia Vitores Moreno, Rhea Mogul, Sophia Saifi, Max Saltman, Mitchell McCluskey and Riane Lumer contributed reporting.