US stocks surge after latest inflation report shows progress on price hikes
By Alicia Wallace, CNN
(CNN) — Recently, progress on inflation appeared to be stuck or, at worst, reversing: A closely watched gauge of underlying price hikes — an index that excludes highly volatile categories — hadn’t budged for months.
On Wednesday, it got unstuck.
The closely watched core measurement of the Consumer Price Index slowed for the first time in months, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday. That reading, coupled with some better-than-expected wholesale inflation data received on Tuesday, spurred optimism in the markets.
US stocks spiked Wednesday morning, as the CPI report boosted traders’ hopes that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting campaign this year. The Dow was up by almost 700 points in morning trading, while the S&P rose by 1.69% and the Nasdaq Composite was higher by 2%.
The CPI measures price changes across commonly purchased goods and services
Overall, the CPI did increase more than anticipated, rising 0.4% from November and jumping 0.2 percentage points to annual rate of 2.9%. However, the monthly gain was largely driven by gas and food prices.
Energy prices, particularly gas and fuel costs, accounted for 40% of the overall monthly increase. Food prices also remained elevated as key staples such as meat and eggs continued to face pressures from weather and disease, respectively.
Food and gas are two of the most visible and frequent ways that consumers encounter inflation. And when prices go up in areas where people — especially lower-income Americans — spend most of their monthly budget, it’s a disheartening endeavor.
In the context of inflation measures, energy and food are two of the most volatile categories and can exhibit wild swings because of factors considered one-time in nature.
Excluding energy and food, the closely watched core CPI gauge slowed for the first time in months, rising just 0.2% from November and easing to 3.2% after staying stuck at 3.3% since September 2024.
“Markets reacted positively this morning for a good reason: the Federal Reserve is OK with watching the headline CPI go up temporarily if that increase does not spill over into the core CPI, and this is what happened in December,” Eugenio Aleman, chief economist for Raymond James, wrote in a note issued Wednesday.
Economists were expecting inflation to pick up 0.3% from November and notch a 2.8% annual increase, primarily due to expectations around higher energy and food prices. The consensus estimates on FactSet did anticipate core slowing on a monthly basis but holding firm at 3.3% for the year.
Progress but ‘painful’ increases for necessities
Wednesday’s report marked the final CPI reading for 2024 and the last before President Joe Biden hands the keys over to President-elect Donald Trump.
While the causes of this recent bout of inflation were multifaceted and largely related to the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout, the sharp rise in prices hit Americans hard and proved to be a critical factor at the ballot box.
Prices of everyday items are 21% higher than they were in 2021. (Over a typical four-year period, prices tend to rise just under 10%, BLS data shows).
Wages have risen faster than inflation for 20 months, the latest BLS data shows; however, they remain below where they were four years ago.
Inflation has slowed significantly since topping out at 9.1% in June 2022. However, the return to more typical rates of inflation was expected to be highly bumpy, and that choppiness was on full display in 2024.
The CPI started this past year at 3.1%, jutted higher in March — an increase feared as a reacceleration — kept interest rate cuts off the table but ultimately was short-lived. Consumer price inflation slowed as low as 2.4% in September, but as the past three months have shown, the path back to normal isn’t smooth.
And although markets cheered the data for how it may factor into the Fed’s fight against inflation and any future reduction of high interest rates, it doesn’t take away from the fact that “this was a particularly painful report” for American consumers, noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
“The cost of necessities that hurt household budgets, especially for lower-income Americans, were among the top reasons inflation rose in December,” he wrote. “Those include higher prices for food, both in restaurants and grocery stores, energy, shelter and vehicle insurance.”
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