The US is re-evaluating the threat of Chinese military action in Taiwan

By Stephanie Yang, CNN

Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) — Recent years have brought heightened concern in Western intelligence circles that China could invade the self-governing island of Taiwan as early as next year. But the United States now says an imminent attack is unlikely.

An annual threat assessment by the US intelligence community said Beijing prefers to achieve so-called unification without the use of force, and recognizes that an amphibious assault would be extremely difficult and carry a high risk of failure, especially if the US intervenes.

“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said, referring to China’s People’s Liberation Army.

In 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, then in charge of the Indo-Pacific Command, said China wanted to be ready to invade Taiwan in the next six years. The premise that Beijing could take action in 2027 became known as the “Davidson window,” fueling greater urgency in Taiwan’s military reform.

The updated analysis comes as President Donald Trump has sought to postpone an important meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, during which one of the top priorities was expected to be US policy toward Taiwan.

China’s ruling Communist Party has vowed to “reunify” with the self-governing democracy, despite having never controlled Taiwan, as part of its plan for “national rejuvenation.”

While the US does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and has long declined to say whether it will send military support in event of conflict, Chinese officials have previously criticized the US as interfering in its internal affairs on Taiwan, and have condemned proposed arms sales that could total $25 billion.

China has also often emphasized its preference for peaceful unification. Still, the growing frequency of Chinese military incursions around the island and worsening relations between Beijing and Taipei have raised fears that Xi might ultimately resort to force.

Asked about the most recent US intelligence assessment on Thursday, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian urged US institutions to “stop hyping up the ‘China threat’ theory.”

“How to resolve the Taiwan question is entirely a matter for the Chinese people themselves and brooks no interference from any foreign forces,” said Lin in a regular press briefing.

Preparing for war

While the latest US assessment mitigates previous assumptions, analysts said it won’t significantly impact efforts by the US, China and Taiwan to prepare for the possibility of conflict.

The 2026 report said China’s military is still making “steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter – and, if necessary, defeat – U.S. military intervention.”

In Taiwan, which has extended its conscription mandates and increased defense spending, confidence in US military support in the event of war with China has waned since Trump took office.

A senior security official in Taiwan, though, told CNN the revised US assessment does not mean the threat had ceased. “In addition to ongoing political interference and united front operations, China continues to adjust its expansionist objectives and timeline,” the official said, adding that Beijing was “recalibrating its approach based on changes in deterrence posture by the US and its allies in the global geopolitical landscape.”

The escalating attacks on Iran – to which Trump is now considering deploying thousands of US troops, according to the Reuters news agency – could also draw attention and resources away from security in Asia.

“Taiwan still views China’s growing military capabilities and the implications extending from US military adventurism, as demonstrated by the Trump administration’s military campaigns in Venezuela and Iran, as a sign that great powers may increasingly believe ‘might is right,’” said William Yang, a senior analyst at International Crisis Group.

At the same time, China’s appetite for conflict has likely been dampened by struggles to support its slowing domestic economy, as well as a string of dismissals in the top echelons of its own military.

“In purging the highest levels of the military, the leadership has effectively set aside the option of an invasion for at least the next two years,” said Amanda Hsiao, China director for Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm. “Beijing continues to see the cost of an invasion as too high in the near term because it has the potential to derail the country’s development, the leadership’s top priority.”

This article has been updated with additional information.

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CNN’s Wayne Chang contributed reporting