The Iran war has a new front in Yemen. Here’s how it could escalate

By Tim Lister and Nadeen Ebrahim

(CNN) — After a month of threats, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels finally entered the Middle East conflict on Saturday, firing two missiles towards Israel. And in recent days they have also warned they could close a key waterway at the southern entrance of the Red Sea – raising the prospect of even greater disruption to global shipping and oil supplies.

Whether the Houthis will extend their attacks to Saudi Arabia or Red Sea shipping remains unclear, but doing so would mark a dramatic escalation of the month-long war.

Who are the Houthis?

The Houthis represent Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority, the Zaidis, and are formally known as Ansar Allah – “Partisans of God.”

They emerged as an armed group in the 1990s and fought a series of rebellions against Yemen’s central government over two decades. After the Arab Spring in 2011, they seized a northern province and later the capital Sanaa, which they still hold, along with most of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline.

In the process they became part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” across the region, receiving weapons and missile technology. After Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza began in October 2023, the Houthis launched missiles against Israel and began targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The Israelis responded with air-strikes against Houthi infrastructure and killed a number of senior Houthi officials – but not the top leadership.

Why have they joined the war now?

Their initial attempted strikes on Saturday were very limited, and some analysts see them as a symbolic move rather than a full-throated effort to support Iran.

“The truth is, (Israel is) at war with us and in a state of continuous aggression against us,” according to Nasr al-Din Amer, a member of the Houthis’ politburo.

“They have not stopped, nor have they concealed their pursuit of what they call ‘Greater Israel’ and ‘changing the Middle East,’” Amer said in a statement to CNN on Saturday.

The Houthis’ leader, Abdel-Malik Houthi, said on Thursday that Yemenis “repay loyalty with loyalty, and Iran was the only state, officially, that stood with us against the aggression on our country.”

Much of his speech was directed at Saudi Arabia, demanding compensation for the blockade and the long-term damage to Yemen as a result of Riyadh’s military campaign against the Houthis between 2015 and 2022.

Essentially, the Houthis are putting Saudi Arabia on notice while not inviting Saudi retaliation.

“It lets them restart military action without getting pulled into a wider fight with the U.S. or Saudi Arabia,” according to Yemeni analyst Mohammad Basha.

“Their main focus is still the Palestinian cause. By striking Israel, they are telling people in Yemen, their partners in the Iran-backed network, and supporters abroad that their priority has not changed,” Basha wrote on X.

What is Israel saying?

The Israeli military says it is prepared for a multi-front war but has not detailed any plans for retaliation.

“We have to be ready for this becoming a part of this war, and that’s how we’re preparing for it,” Israel Defense Forces spokesman Nadav Shoshani said Sunday.

“We’re taking their word and preparing to defend ourselves for as long as needed from that front as well.”

Is this a boost for Iran?

Not yet. The Houthis’ ability to inflict damage on Israel is marginal. Between 2023 and 2025 they fired nearly 100 missiles and more than 300 drones at Israel. Only one person was killed.

However, were the Houthis to expand their campaign to target Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it would further expand the conflict. They have previously used missiles and drones against both countries, which are already fending off daily attacks from Iran.

The real boost for Iran would come if the Houthis resume targeting shipping in the Red Sea. They hit more than 100 ships in response to Israel’s military action in Gaza, driving up insurance rates and persuading many major operators to avoid the sea-lane, normally one of the busiest in the world.

With Tehran blocking most shipping from using the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians and their chief regional ally would control or at least have a massive impact on regional shipping routes – and the flow of oil.

How can they block the Red Sea?

The Houthis control most of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the major port of Hodeidah. They have a range of weapons – including drones and anti-ship missiles – that can cause severe damage and even sink merchant ships.

Shipping has to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait – which translates as the Gate of Tears – at the southern end of the Red Sea. Just 29 kilometers (18 miles) across at its narrowest point, the navigational challenges would make huge container vessels particularly vulnerable to attack.

On Friday, Mohammed Mansour, deputy Information Minister in the Houthi government, told CNN that closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait “is a viable option, and the consequences will be borne by the American and Israeli aggressors.”

Just how much damage to the global economy would such disruption cause?

With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely curtailed over the past month, blocking another maritime chokepoint would cause further economic dislocation.

“Disrupting traffic in the Red Sea, the Bab al Mandab Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea creates pressure without crossing a line that could trigger a direct U.S. response,” says Basha.

Nearly 15% of global maritime trade passes the Bab al-Mandab. The previous disruptions to shipping between 2023 and 2025 probably cost some $20 billion a year, according to industry estimates, as ships were re-routed around southern Africa (often extending a voyage by two weeks) or paid higher insurance to use the Red Sea.

Those attacks also caused brief but noticeable spikes in crude prices because of the higher risk premiums.

But during that period there were large global stocks of oil and alternative routes. That’s not the case now.

And there’s an additional hazard. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked to most traffic, Saudi Arabia is routing oil exports through its east-west pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, and tanker traffic there has surged.

The port of Jeddah is also handling far greater volumes of container traffic.

Both would be vulnerable to Houthi drones and missiles.

Even the prospect of renewed Houthi attacks worries large shipping companies such as Maersk, which is currently avoiding the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

“The primary risk that one could see is that the actual conflict itself spreads to a wider geography,” Charles van der Steene, regional managing director of Maersk told CNN earlier this month.

While Jeddah “continues to be a safe option, (but) we need to consider what the alternatives would be,” he added.

While the Houthis may delay any broader escalation, says Basha, “they may be overlooking the longer-term risk. Israel has a pattern of delayed responses that focus on leadership. A decapitation campaign could come sooner or later.”

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