Tropical storm warning issued in Louisiana for major flood threat

By Meteorologists Chris Dolce, Briana Waxman, Mary Gilbert, and CNN’s Kate Petersen

(CNN) — A tropical storm warning has been issued for portions of the Louisiana coast for a system that’s likely to soon become a short-lived tropical storm – the first of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

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Tropical storm or not, this system will drench the Gulf states with significant flooding rain for days. And it has as already left its mark – at least two people have died in floodwaters in Texas so far this week.

The system is centered about 25 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, as of 10 p.m. CT. It’s been dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone One — a label the National Hurricane Center uses for systems that haven’t formed yet but could bring tropical storm conditions to land within 72 hours, or in this case as soon as early Wednesday.

It’s forecast to become Tropical Storm Arthur once it moves into the northwest Gulf by early Wednesday morning. The system is then expected to move back inland over extreme east Texas or southwest Louisiana by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm force winds (40 mph or greater) are expected across the warning area from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana, but the more widespread threat is flooding due to heavy rainfall.

The National Hurricane Center warns that the combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline from Matagorda, Texas through the mouth of the Mississippi River in eastern Louisiana. The highest surge potential exists from Port Bolivar, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana, where 2 to 4 feet of water above tide level is likely.

Flood watches for the dangerous setup have been issued for more than 26 million people from South Texas to central and southern Mississippi. Brownsville, and Houston, Texas; Lake Charles, Louisiana; Jackson, Mississippi; and Atlanta, Georgia are among the cities that could see significant to life-threatening flash floods.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 4 threat of flash flooding for each day from Tuesday to Thursday in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour are possible at times in some of these areas.

Another 5 to 10 inches of rain could fall through Thursday from much of southern Louisiana to central and southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, the hurricane center says. A few spots could see up to 20 inches of rain.

Some locations from southern and eastern Texas to Louisiana and southern Mississippi have seen 4 to 8 inches of rain so far. The highest total as of Tuesday morning was just over 9 inches near Caldwell, Texas.

Flooding kills two in Texas

Texas, Louisiana and southern Mississippi have already been swamped by flooding from this system’s moisture colliding with a stalled front. There have been over 130 reports of flooding across these areas since Sunday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 101 counties and activated additional state emergency response resources on Monday.

In Bandera County, northwest of San Antonio, a woman was killed after her vehicle was swept into a flooded creek early Monday morning. The woman called 911 and said she was “floating downstream at a high rate of speed and unable to exit her vehicle,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement. Authorities launched swift water rescue teams after losing contact with the woman. Her vehicle was found “several miles downstream” and “completely submerged,” the sheriff said.

Street flooding in Montgomery County, part of the greater Houston metro area, led to several stranded vehicles and at least 10 street closures on Tuesday, according to Montgomery County Sheriff spokesperson Miranda Hahs.

On Tuesday evening, a 15-year-old boy was found dead in Magnolia in Montgomery County, after he entered a flooded retention pond while playing with a group of teenagers near a construction roadway, the sheriff’s office said in a statement to CNN.

“After an extensive search, the juvenile was located underwater using sonar technology … this incident serves as a solemn reminder of the dangers associated with floodwaters,” the sheriff’s office said, expressing its “deepest condolences to the family.”

Drivers stranded in floodwater have required rescue or assistance in Travis, Bexar and Williamson counties since Monday, according to local authorities. About 80 low water crossings in Travis County were flooded Monday morning, county Judge Andy Brown told CNN.

Homes, buildings and roads flooded in Picayune, Mississippi, where an estimated 8 to 9 inches of rain fell over six hours on Tuesday.

Fire crews rescued a family, including an infant, from a home with knee-deep water, Picayune Fire Department Chief Joshua Abercrombie told CNN, noting floodwater was waist-deep on the road outside the home. Some drivers also got stuck in the flooding in the city, but there were no reported injuries.

“This just dumped a tremendous amount of rain,” Abercrombie said. “We’re not used to flooding in the areas we got it in.”

In Shreveport, Louisiana, floodwater stranded drivers and entered a few commercial buildings and at least one building at a technical college on Monday, Caddo Parish Sheriff’s Deputy John Lane told CNN. The sheriff’s office received 52 calls for water rescues in a roughly six-hour period, but Lane didn’t know how many of those calls ultimately required a rescue. No injuries were reported, he said.

In Waco, Texas, multiple vehicles were stranded in floodwater on parts of Interstate 35 on Sunday night, forcing rescues, according to the Texas Department of Transportation. Photos posted by the city on Monday show roadways washed away by the storms.

“I have not seen flooding like that in Waco before,” Texas Game Warden Capt. Matthew Kiel told CNN Monday, noting many low water crossings in rural parts of the county were flooded and wardens had completed a handful of water rescues across central Texas.

Timing the flood threat

Here’s where the biggest flooding concerns are expected in the next few days:

• Tuesday night: Coastal Texas to southwest and central Louisiana and a small part of central Mississippi are in the area with the biggest flooding concerns. Localized flooding is possible as far east as central and southern Alabama and western and central Georgia.

• Wednesday to Wednesday night: The upper Texas coast, including Galveston, and southwest Louisiana, could see the most dangerous flooding, especially where rainfall has already saturated the ground from earlier in the week. How far west the heavy rain threat spreads is still uncertain, which could mean the difference between significant flashing flooding in Houston or not much impact at all.

• Thursday to Thursday night: The biggest threat of flooding rain will be from central Louisiana across southern and central parts of Mississippi and Alabama, all the way into western Georgia. At least localized flooding will be possible as far southwest as upper Texas to as far north and east as Georgia, the Tennessee Valley and the central and southern Appalachians. That’s because a new cold front will help pull the tropical moisture farther north and east.

• Friday to Friday night: The cold front could cause at least isolated flash flooding in much of the South, but details are still uncertain.

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CNN’s Karina Tsui contributed to this report.