Tropical storm warning issued as Bertha threatens Gulf Coast with flooding rain and strong wind gusts
By Meteorologist Melissa Nord, Chris Dolce, Dakota Smith, CNN
(CNN) — Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeastern Gulf and is expected to hit portions of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana, potentially reaching as far west as Texas.
Heavy rain, coastal flooding and tropical storm-force winds are all possible in its path. The system was already spinning some bands of heavy rain into the Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon.
The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has winds of 40 mph and additional strengthening is possible.
🌀 ⛈️Watch: See the latest track and intensity scenarios for the storm on the CNN Weather app
A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. In these areas, tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the western coast of the Florida Panhandle and the remainder of the eastern half of the Louisiana coast, including New Orleans. In these locations, tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional watches could be issued farther west along the Louisiana and Texas coast in the next day or two.
Though now classified as a tropical storm, Bertha still remains a disorganized system as persistent thunderstorms have formed only on its southern half. Dry air and the storm’s large size have kept it from strengthening into a healthy tropical cyclone, despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water.
Atlantic hurricane season has gotten off to a slow start, compared to recent years, as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season because of it.
Storm track, intensity
Bertha will mostly likely track along the Gulf Coast and make landfall by late Wednesday night as a weak tropical storm near southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Several factors will keep Bertha from intensifying much. Tropical systems interacting with land tend to weaken because they’re starved of the warm water that fuels their thunderstorms.
Bertha may also face even more storm-killing wind shear than it’s battling now. Wind shear is the change in wind speed or direction from the surface to the upper levels of the atmosphere; it can rip a storm apart, literally shearing it.
Depending on how hostile the atmosphere around Bertha becomes, the storm could even dissipate over Louisiana. However, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for it to reach the Upper Texas Coast as a tropical depression by late week.
Impacts expected on Gulf Coast starting Monday
Regardless of the system’s fate, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast Monday night through at least midweek.
Fortunately for interests near the coast, the wind shear is affecting the northern half of Bertha more, keeping the heaviest rain offshore.
Here’s what to expect:
• Rainfall: Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 8 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, are possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This could trigger flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.
• Wind: Tropical storm conditions — sustained winds of 39+ mph— are possible in the tropical storm warning area of the Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coasts Monday night into Tuesday. Locations in the western Florida Panhandle and coastal Louisiana in a tropical storm watch could see those conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Higher gusts in thunderstorms could cause isolated power outages.
• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border. A storm surge watch is in effect for this area, which means life-threatening inundation of ocean water is possible in the next 48 hours.
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