Democrats in striking distance: New CNN polls in four states highlight party’s path to Senate majority

By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu, CNN

(CNN) — CNN polling across four key Senate races in the final days of the midterm campaign finds Democrats well-positioned in Michigan and Texas, with no clear leader in the races in Maine or Kansas.

The four states tell the story of a midterm playing field that has shifted in unexpected ways, leaving Democrats hopeful that they’ll be able to take control of the Senate after next Tuesday’s elections. That prospect largely seemed out of reach earlier this year, and it remains far from a done deal. But with President Donald Trump’s ratings underwater even in states he won easily in 2024, territory that was once staunchly Republican now appears to be up for grabs.

In Michigan, the epitome of a battleground state, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (49%) has opened up a lead over Republican Mike Rogers (42%) among likely voters amid signs that the state’s Democratic base has unified behind him, and that discouraged Republicans are checking out.

Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat in a statewide race in three decades, gives Democrat James Talarico (49%) a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton (43%) among likely voters. Talarico’s bid benefits from deeply negative impressions of Paxton, as well as sizable support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who voted for Trump in 2024.

Early on, Maine was widely viewed as one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this cycle, with Sen. Susan Collins the only Republican up for reelection in a state that voted Democratic in 2024. But the race has remained a tight contest: The new poll of likely voters finds no clear leader between Collins (45%) and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (49%), even as the race has become squarely a referendum on Collins.

And in deep-red Kansas, there is no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton (49%) and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (45%), even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. Voters here largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are about Marshall more so than Hamilton.

Taken together, these four states paint a picture of a Democratic Party well-positioned to make a play for Senate control. They exemplify the extraordinary range of the playing field in a political environment that borders on historic negativity toward the party in power, and of the ways in which individual candidates can overcome – or succumb to – the forces of political habit.

For Democrats to take control of the Senate, they will need a net gain of four seats; three of these four seats are currently held by Republicans. Beyond the core math, they’ll need the prevailing political winds and the dynamics of these individual races to align.

There is still room for those dynamics to shift. In all but Maine, at least 1 in 8 likely voters say they could still change their mind about whom to support. In Texas and Kansas, at least 6 in 10 of those uncommitted likely voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, suggesting there is room for political gravity to work in the GOP’s favor as voters settle on their decisions. More than 9 in 10 Maine likely voters, though, say they are locked into their choice. In all four states, enough voters are movable to close the gap between candidates.

El-Sayed consolidates Democrats in Michigan as views of Rogers worsen

El-Sayed has opened up a lead over Rogers in what was a no-clear-leader race in CNN’s polling around Labor Day. That lead rests on worsening views of Rogers, as well as consolidated support among Democrats following the state’s contentious August primary.

All told, El-Sayed now holds the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters, up a touch from 90% in the last poll.

Likely voters in the state are largely making their choices based on their views of El-Sayed. Three-quarters of his supporters see their vote as one of support for him, and 57% of Rogers supporters say their vote is against El-Sayed – a reversal in how Rogers’ voters view their choice compared with earlier in the campaign.

That shift comes as views of Rogers have notably worsened: 50% now have an unfavorable view of the former Congressman, up from 42% in early September. El-Sayed’s favorable ratings remain roughly evenly split between positive and negative views.

Trump backlash and Talarico’s advantage in Texas

Texas’ tilt toward a Democrat in its Senate contest demonstrates how individual candidates can short–circuit political currents. Trump carried Texas in 2024 by the largest margin in any of his three runs for the presidency, winning over sizable shares of the state’s voters of color, including a majority of Latino and Asian voters. And there are signs that Talarico, to a greater extent than some other Democratic candidates, is overperforming the political environment.

Talarico has the support of 63% of Latino likely voters in the state and 64% among likely voters of color generally. That includes carrying 22% of likely voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024.

Talarico’s favorability rating is far more positive than Paxton’s, and most Talarico supporters say their decision is more of a sign of support for the Democrat than an anti-Paxton vote. The poll finds Paxton struggling to generate positive support even among his own partisans: 24% hold an unfavorable view of Paxton, compared with just 2% of Democrats holding a negative view of Talarico.

Still, nobody would confuse Texas for being Democratic-friendly territory. While Trump’s approval rating in the state has tipped into the negative, the GOP remains more popular than the Democratic Party, and there’s no clear leader in the state’s race for governor.

The candidate contrast in Kansas

In Kansas, the most Republican-friendly of the four states polled, only about one-third hold a positive view of the Democratic Party.

But Hamilton, like Talarico, is overperforming his party – even as he’s a lesser-known quantity. In this case, the more relevant number may be Marshall’s underperformance and unpopularity. Most likely voters say that they view the Republican nominee negatively, and a 59% majority of Hamilton’s backers say they’re motivated primarily by opposition to Marshall.

Hamilton has the support of roughly 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, a significantly broader crossover than for any other Democratic candidate tested. And those voters without an opinion of Hamilton – about one-fifth of the electorate – still support him over Marshall.

In blue-leaning Maine, a tight contest

There is no clear leader in the Maine Senate race, and the fundamentals of the race remain roughly the same as in CNN’s last poll there just ahead of Labor Day. Collins’ continued competitive position speaks to her ability to defray criticism that she is too close to an unpopular president.

Compared to GOP nominees in the other three states, Collins is less broadly seen as willing to place the interests of Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the people in her state. In fact, Maine likely voters are about as apt to see Jackson as beholden to the Democratic Party as they are to say Collins is to the GOP. Collins also picks up more support among Trump disapprovers (21%) than any of the other GOP candidates tested in these polls (Rogers at 16%, Marshall at 12%, Paxton at 10%).

Collins needs to win over some voters dissatisfied with her party, because views of the GOP are more negative in Maine than in any of the other states polled.

The race is clearly turning on views of Collins herself. About three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate say their choices are motivated by Collins more than Jackson. Her favorability rating remains broadly net-negative (54% have an unfavorable view), but Jackson’s is also narrowly negative (46% unfavorable to 39% favorable). And many more report seeing advertising in support of Collins (42%) than of Jackson (27%).

In the final stretch, the poll finds that while Jackson’s backers remain more motivated to vote (79% are extremely motivated compared with 62% among Collins’ supporters), deep motivation among Collins’ voters has grown by 9 points since early September while motivation among Jackson’s voters has held steady.

How control of the Senate comes into play

Many voters across these four states are keenly aware that their choice carries national implications. For some, that’s a driving factor – even beyond the character of the candidates and the issues at play in the specific races. A 55% majority of the voters supporting the Democrat Jackson in Maine say that party control is their top concern, while in Texas and Kansas, it’s more of a factor for those backing Republican candidates than Democrats, including being the top consideration for half of those supporting Marshall in Kansas.

But in these states that are likely to be central to determining who holds power in the Senate next year, a majority of voters point to other factors as their top consideration.

CNN’s Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.

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The CNN polls of likely voters were conducted online and by telephone from Oct. 20-27, 2026 in Michigan and Texas and Oct. 20-26, 2026 in Kansas and Maine. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among the 838 likely voters in Kansas have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points; among the 783 likely voters in Maine, the margin of sampling error is 4.5 percentage points; among the 768 likely voters in Michigan it is 4.7 percentage points, and among the 923 likely voters in Texas it is 4.2 percentage points.