‘Life-threatening’ flood warnings issued in Texas, where storms could drop a summer’s worth of rain

By Meteorologist Chris Dolce, CNN

(CNN) — Slow-moving storms with torrential rainfall are drenching parts of Texas, fueling a risk of significant and life-threatening flash flooding through midweek.

Multiple flash flood warnings were in effect for the Hill Country west of San Antonio on Tuesday morning. Six to 12 inches of rain has fallen since Monday night in parts of Medina, Uvalde and Bandera counties.

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The area at greatest risk of serious flooding is from San Antonio west to the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley near the US-Mexico border. Those areas could pick up more than a summer’s worth of rain in just a few days by the time the rain finally ebbs on Friday.

The threat in the Hill Country comes just over a year since the devastating Fourth of July floods that killed more than 130 people there, including 25 girls and two teenage counselors at Camp Mystic.

The region is prone to flooding because of steep slopes, shallow soils and exposed bedrock that repel heavy rain instead of it allowing it to soak into the ground.

At least localized flash flooding could extend as far east the Texas coast, including Houston, mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Flood watches have been issued for almost six million people in central and southwest Texas including Austin, Del Rio, San Angelo and San Antonio.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott activated the state’s emergency response on Sunday to make state resources available, including water rescue teams and helicopters, to respond to any flooding that pops up.

“Texans are urged never to drive or walk through flooded roadways, as floodwaters may be deeper and move more rapidly than they appear,” a release from the governor’s office said.

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Extreme rainfall events like this are becoming more common as planet-warming pollution pushes temperatures higher because warmer air holds more moisture. Weather systems can then wring that moisture out like a water-laden sponge, yielding heavy and often highly localized downpours.

Fueling this heavy rain threat is abundant Gulf moisture that’s clashing with a stalled front and a pocket of energy in the upper atmosphere. It’s a notorious recipe for generating slow-moving clusters of storms that can unleash rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.

However, pinpointing exactly what towns or cities could see the worst flooding impacts is less certain since it depends on where the most persistent storms flare up from day to day.

The forecast

A Level 3 of 4 flash flood risk has been issued through Wednesday by the Weather Prediction Center from San Antonio west to the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley near the US-Mexico border.

It’s likely that parts of those regions will upgraded to a rare Level 4 of 4 “high risk” of flooding rain once confidence increases in where the most significant rain will fall over multiple days, the WPC said.

It’s hard to overstate just how significant these high risk flooding events are. They are issued on fewer than 4% of days per year on average, but are responsible for more than 80% of all flood-related damage and 36% of all flood-related deaths, WPC research shows

Rainfall totals in this area could reach 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 10 to 15 inches possible. The higher-end of that range would be more than what Del Rio, Texas, typically sees from June to August, falling in just a few days.

Flooding is likely on roads and in urban areas. Creeks, stream and rivers will also rise, with some possible overflowing their banks.

The risk of significant flash flooding will continue on Thursday, but mainly over southwest Texas, including from Del Rio to Midland and San Angelo.

The flood threat could finally ease by Friday or Saturday, but some lingering pockets of showers and storms will remain possible, especially in West Texas.

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CNN’s Dakota Smith contributed to this report.