Hurricane Lowell remains powerful Category 4 as Hawaii braces for possible impacts

By Meteorologist Mary Gilbert, CNN

(CNN) — Hawaii is under a state of emergency with powerful Hurricane Lowell set to bear down on its western islands Monday. It’s the third storm in as many weeks to threaten the state, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season.

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The hurricane was a Category 4 with winds up to 150 mph early Saturday morning, local time, according to the National Hurricane Center, as Lowell fluctuates between Category 4 and 5 strength.

“Some additional intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend by early next week,” the center said. Lowell is forecast to be near Category 4 strength when it approaches Hawaii. Just how bad the hurricane gets for the island chain hinges on how close it tracks to its westernmost islands of Niihau and Kauai early next week.

A shift of less than 100 miles east of its current forecast track would mean more direct impacts from a potential major hurricane. Dangerously rough seas, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely, especially for the western islands, even if that shift doesn’t happen.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Thursday to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units. Six high-water vehicles are also being deployed to Kauai, he said.

Kauai County has begun clearing drainage systems and staging equipment in flood-prone areas. At least two state parks on the island are closed to camping in anticipation of storm impacts. State land and natural resources crews were slated to notify campers they must leave immediately on Friday, according to the county.

“Our state is still recovering from Lala, and we are not waiting for another storm to get close before preparing,” Green said in a news release. Officials have also urged people to have 14 days’ worth of supplies ahead of the storm.

In mid-August, Hurricane Lala deluged eastern Hawaii’s Big Island with feet of rain, triggering severe flooding. Tropical Storm Moke came onto the scene not long after. It delivered some rain to the Big Island in late August, but as a much weaker storm, the impacts were less significant.

“This is a serious storm season,” Green said at a news conference Friday, noting his state is likely to face additional threatening tropical systems in the coming weeks.

“We’ve got multiple storms because of El Niño that are stacking up – we’re told that’s what the fall is going to be like,” the governor said.

For now, all eyes are on Lowell. The hurricane — which was briefly a Category 5 on Friday before temporarily dropping — is currently tracking west, more than 600 miles south of Hawaii, but is forecast to take a sharp turn to the north this weekend.

It’s a track eerily similar to that of 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains the state’s worst storm on record.

“We know that the memory of Hurricane ʻIniki is close to the surface for many of our families right now, so let us stay vigilant and prepare with a steady hand,” Kauai County Mayor Derek S.K. Kawakami said in a statement. He encouraged residents to stay patient, to stay safe on roads and to check on their neighbors.

“We don’t need any unforeseen tragedies while everyone is preparing,” Kawakami said. “Also, use this time to prepare and talk story with your ʻohana tonight so everyone knows the plan.”

Just over 100 miles southeast, on the island of Oahu, officials called for residents to be vigilant, even as the hurricane doesn’t currently pose much risk for Hawaii’s capital and largest city.

“We feel much better about where things stand for Oʻahu heading into this weekend, but we are going to stay vigilant until Lowell makes that turn and moves away from us,” Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said in a statement.

An area of low pressure located high in the atmosphere well north of Hawaii is expected to interact with Lowell and pull the hurricane north. It’s an atmospheric process a bit like grabbing a stuffed animal in a claw machine.

But exactly when this interaction happens and how much grip the low pressure has will determine exactly when the sharp turn takes place and how close Lowell gets to Hawaii.

The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast brings Lowell’s center about 150 miles west of Niihau or 190 miles west of Kauai later Tuesday morning. But the forecasters have less confidence than normal in that exact track this far out, before it starts making its turn north.

Groups of computer forecast models called ensembles are still showing a wide range of outcomes for Lowell’s closest approach. They range from a potential devastating landfall on Kauai or Oahu to a track more than 400 miles west of Niihau that would mean little more than slightly rougher surf and maybe a few showers.

Confidence in the hurricane’s track will increase after it completes its sharp turn this weekend.

Given this, it’s hard to say with any certainty how much wind and rain the islands will get, but it’s clear that rough surf, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely starting as early as this weekend.

Lowell will be strong enough to significantly churn up the ocean outward from its center, stacking up big waves and sending more water than usual at Hawaii’s southern shores. Tides will also be near their highest levels of the month, raising the floor on any flood threats.

Major coastal flooding is possible in Kauai, the National Weather Service warned, with significant coastal flooding also possible for Oahu.

“We’re hopeful that it will miss us, but if it does what Iniki did in 1992 or even does anything close … we could see tragic consequences,” Green said.

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CNN’s Kate S. Petersen and Meteorologist Tyler Ory contributed to this report.