Hurricane Lowell’s forecast path shifts closer to Hawaii, increasing danger
By CNN Meteorologists Tyler Ory and Mary Gilbert
(CNN) — A rare hurricane warning is in effect for the Hawaiian islands of Kauai and Niihau as powerful Hurricane Lowell’s projected path ekes closer to the state.
It’s the third storm in just over three weeks to target Hawaii, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season.
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Lowell is a Category 3 hurricane as of early Monday morning, local time, with winds of 115 mph, traveling north-northeast at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Its outer rainbands were hitting as far east as Oahu — where a tropical storm watch is in effect — but all of the islands will be soaked as the storm approaches throughout the day.
And it’s expected to get closer than previously thought. The hurricane’s forecast track has shifted about 75 miles east and closer to Kauai and Niihau since Sunday morning. Lowell’s center is now forecast to make its closest pass about 75 miles west of the more populous Kauai as a Category 2 storm Monday night through Tuesday morning.
That distance keeps the hurricane-force (74 mph-plus) sustained winds offshore of Kauai, but the rest of the state will still feel Lowell’s effects through dangerous surf, heavy rain and possible mudslides.
Tropical-storm-force winds of over 39 mph are expected late Monday into Tuesday local time, but will be confined to Kauai and Niihau. Mountain peaks and slopes could see gusts reaching hurricane force, as the islands’ terrain accelerates the winds.
Lowell is forecast to drop 6 to 10 inches of rain on Kauai and Niihau, with isolated totals over 14 inches possible. On the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated rainfall totals up to one foot.
Lower amounts between 2 and 6 inches are forecast for Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and Maui, but those islands could see up to 8 inches in the mountainous areas.
Several roads flooded after heavy rain in Oahu on Sunday afternoon, impacting traffic, according to the Hawaii Department of Transportation.
Swells from Lowell are already producing hazardous surf across the state, and conditions are expected to become much more dangerous Monday.
A high surf warning is in effect through early Tuesday for south-facing shores of Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island. Surf will rapidly build Monday afternoon and evening, reaching 20 to 30 feet on Kauai and Niihau, 12 to 20 feet on Oahu and 12 to 16 feet across Maui County and the Big Island, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
The waves could sweep across beaches and low-lying coastal areas, threatening roads and other infrastructure. Powerful rip currents and large breaking waves could also create dangerous conditions at beaches and harbor entrances, warned the weather service.
Hawaii hunkers down
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state last week to free up resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units. Emergency personnel are being deployed to Kauai’s emergency operations center, the governor said Sunday, adding “airports and highways are securing facilities and equipment, and food and water have been positioned across Kauaʻi in case flooding or road closures isolate communities.”
Kauai County announced plans to close all parks and campgrounds and establish five refuge areas Sunday in anticipation of Lowell’s impacts.
“Closing our parks and opening refuge areas is not a decision we make lightly, but it is the right call with a storm of this strength still turning toward us,” Mayor Derek S.K. Kawakami said in a statement. The mayor has signed an emergency proclamation ahead of the storm.
The Kauai Emergency Management Agency urged residents to stay home and off roads as conditions worsen, fill gas tanks, charge devices, and have enough water and food on hand.
Ahead of the storm, residents in Lihue, a town of 8,000 with Kauai’s primary airport, were stocking up on food and water as supermarket shelves emptied, according to the Associated Press.
“We’ll lose some power, probably have some trees, a bunch of tree limbs coming down,” real estate agent Lori Benkert told the AP. “Everybody is probably going just to hunker down.”
El Niño’s influence
El Niño is helping fuel increased storm potential in the central Pacific this year, warming ocean temperatures in the region and weakening storm-killing upper-level winds, on top of an ocean already warming from climate change.
Five named storms, including Lowell, have already either formed or tracked into the Central Pacific so far. A typical season only has five, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast calls for up to 13 by the time this season is over.
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CNN’s Hanna Park, Danya Gainor, Karina Tsui, Eduardo Cuevas and Dalia Faheid contributed to this report.
