Nor’easter to strengthen, lash much of East Coast with flooding, wind and rain
By Meteorologists Mary Gilbert, Chris Dolce
(CNN) — Coastal flooding and gusty winds are underway on the Mid-Atlantic coast from a developing nor’easter that will also hit parts of New England and the Northeast with coastal flooding, wind and rain through the weekend.
The nor’easter, named for the direction its punishing winds come from, is still in its formative stage well off the East Coast, but will track north and strengthen.
Exactly how strong it becomes and how close it tracks to the coast will determine how much of a punch it will pack in the Northeast as it hauls in wind, rain and coastal flooding on Friday night and Saturday. Confidence is low in both of those factors.
Either way, the storm is helping to whip up winds and drive a significant multiday coastal flood and erosion threat from North Carolina to New Jersey that will intensify on Wednesday evening as high tide arrives.
Here are the two regions most at risk.
New England to take a big punch
Forecast models have waffled back and forth for days, but have recently settled on putting New England and Long Island, New York, in the bull’s-eye of the storm’s most significant rain and wind this weekend.
Those threats could range from merely gusty winds and nuisance rainfall to damaging winds and significant coastal and rainfall flooding, depending on the storm’s intensity.
Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are a couple of the cities where wet and windy conditions will ramp up by Friday night or Saturday morning.
New York City looks to be on the storm’s western edge, outside of its most intense conditions, but could still experience some showers and breezy conditions by Saturday night. Impacts could become more significant if the storm’s track shifts closer to the Big Apple.
Coastal portions of New England and Long Island, New York, will likely encounter the strongest winds. Gusts over 40 mph are possible, but a stronger nor’easter could increase those winds and the risk of power outages and downed trees.
The wind will also rough up seas considerably and cause some beach erosion and coastal flooding at high tide Friday into Saturday. More significant flooding is possible with a stronger storm.
Rain could also cause some flooding on roads in southeastern New England, particularly in eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Rainfall rates won’t be torrential like in summer thunderstorms, but some areas may not be able to soak up even moderate rain as the ground gets more saturated over time. Portions of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see over 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend.
The storm could remain near New England into Sunday or Monday but will likely be past its peak strength. Coastal flooding, rainfall and breezy conditions could still persist there during that time.
Serious coastal flooding likely in the Mid-Atlantic
Coastal flooding is a lock in the Mid-Atlantic through the end of this week regardless of what the nor’easter does in the Northeast because of two other factors.
The first is a strong area of high pressure over eastern Canada that’s sending crisp and chilly air to the Northeast. High temperatures in the region are forecast to only climb into the 60s into the weekend as a result.
That high pressure and the burgeoning nor’easter are squeezing the air between them, increasing wind speeds along the East Coast.
The second factor at play: a full moon. Tide levels will climb higher each day until they hit their monthly peak around Saturday’s full moon. Higher water levels and stronger winds are the exact combination for serious coastal flooding.
Coastal areas of southeast Virginia already experienced minor-to- locally moderate coastal flooding on Wednesday morning.
Additional bouts of coastal flooding will unfold from North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Virginia to New Jersey through Friday or even Saturday. Many locations will experience at least moderate inundation of ocean water and some places could see major flooding.
The flooding and pounding surf day after day will likely result in significant beach erosion as well.
The-CNN-Wire
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