The US says it’ll crack down on countries doing business with Iran. Who’s buying Iranian oil?

By Ramishah Maruf, CNN

New York (CNN) — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday vowed an “economic D-Day” for countries that buy oil from Iran. Experts say that means one country in particular: China.

Bessent didn’t name China on Monday, but he left little room for doubt.

“We find that the best way to engage with countries is through quiet diplomacy, and we are level-setting with every country to tell them our expectations,” Bessent said on Monday. “We know who they are. They know who they are.”

But while Bessent’s threat could put China front and center, the repercussions could reach across the world – even for American consumers, who could find their own energy costs rising as a result.

Tehran likely shipped $3.9 and $4.2 billion worth of oil in September 2025, one analysis found; China, the world’s largest energy consumer, buys the vast majority.

“Chinese purchases account for roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil, providing tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue that supports Iran’s government budget and military activities,” the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission said earlier this year.

Monday’s announcement was a “warning shot,” Bessent said. While some entities and individuals were sanctioned, he did not announce broad measures aimed at any specific nations.

On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said: “Sanctions and pressure tactics do not help in resolving issues. They will only lead to escalation that serves no one’s interest.”

Thirty-eight percent of China’s oil and 23% of its liquified natural gas transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a focal point of the Iran war, according to a Nomura report in April.

China has already reduced its Iranian oil intake. Its Iranian crude imports averaged around 1.4 million barrels per day before the war but have fallen to around 700,000 in recent months due to lower refinery runs and drawdowns from onshore inventories, according to Emma Li at energy analytics firm Vortexa.

“A complete halt (in imports of Iranian crude) would probably have a limited immediate impact on China’s overall oil security, because imports from Iran have already fallen substantially and China still holds relatively large crude inventories,” Tianyue Hu, an analyst at energy intelligence firm Rystad, told CNN.

But new sanctions could further erode the Trump administration’s rocky relationship with China. The two nations were in a blistering trade war last year at the height of President Donald Trump’s tariffs rollout. And they recently revived a tit-for-tat exchange of sanctions.

“China, by far, is the most impactful one if you really wanted to make a dent in Iran’s ability to continue to finance their activities,” Daniel Tannebaum, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, previously told CNN.

It’s not the first time the United States has threatened sanctions on Iranian trade partners.

India once was a major importer of Iranian oil. The two remain maintained a $1.1 billion trade relationship between April and December 2025 for goods like rice and sugar, but India stopped importing Iranian oil in 2019 due to US sanctions. (India bought Iranian oil in April of this year amid an energy crisis.)

Muddy waters

It’s hard to determine how much US sanctions could impact China or any other countries that depend on Iranian oil.

Wall Street analysts haven’t even been able to get a straight answer on how much oil is leaving the Strait of Hormuz. While US Energy Secretary Chris Wright asserted that the strait is open and oil is flowing, Iran says the opposite. And third-party ship-tracking data showed about half the amount Wright claimed.

Then there are shadow fleets, used often by countries under sanctions. These oil tankers hide their owners, origins and destinations, making them hard to track. Ship tracking platform Kpler said this month that shadow transit made up around 50% strait traffic in recent weeks, up from around 12.5% a month ago.

But the lack of oil flows affects everybody. Large oil reserves kept the world from entering a major oil shortage when the war with Iran started in February.

And periodic ceasefires during the war sent global oil prices lower – only to rise again whenever those agreements have lapsed or run out.

American consumers have already seen the effects of higher oil prices because of the war. The current national average price for gas is $4.10 a gallon, compared to last year’s average of $3.15, according to AAA.

“No one is above the reach of US sanctions,” Bessent said Monday. But he sidestepped announcing end dates for any decisions. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit the US next month.

“I’m not going to set timelines, but we do not have infinite patience here,” Bessent said.

CNN’s Simone McCarthy, Jennifer Hansler, Adam Cancryn and David Goldman contributed to this report.

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