EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — A second consecutive quarter of economic growth underscored Thursday that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. Yet the U.S. economy is hardly in the clear. The solid growth last quarter will do little to alter the widespread view that a recession is very likely this year. Increased borrowing rates and still-high inflation are expected to steadily weaken consumer and business spending. Businesses will likely pare expenses in response, which could lead to layoffs and higher unemployment. Such trends are expected to cause a U.S. recession sometime in the coming months. So what is the likelihood of a recession?