A New Jersey special election could soon narrow the House GOP’s razor-thin majority

By Arit John, CNN

(CNN) — Two months after progressive Analilia Mejia won a special election in the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 11th District, voters will decide Thursday whether they want to send her to Congress.

Mejia will face Republican Joe Hathaway, a member of the Randolph Township council.

In a district where there are about 65,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, according to the state’s Department of Elections, Mejia is favored to win the special election for the seat Mikie Sherrill vacated after being elected governor in November. Mejia has united most of the Democratic Party behind her, including former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who ran in the special primary and lost after facing a barrage of spending from a group linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

A Mejia victory on Thursday would be a boon for progressives, notably Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who endorsed her after she was national political director for his 2020 presidential campaign. Hathaway, meanwhile, is hoping to win over Democrats who feel Mejia would be too far left for the district.

“I think on Thursday voters know they have a decision – an easy decision – to make,” Mejia told CNN. “Their pocketbook, the prices at the gas pump, the prices at the grocery store, are informing people about just how dangerous it is to send someone else to do Donald Trump’s bidding in Congress.”

Hathaway has run as a moderate, a self-described “commonsense, independent” former mayor willing to buck the Republican Party.

“For a lot of those Democrats out there, I say it kind of tongue in cheek, but I mean it too: They have an opportunity here,” he said. “If they’re really concerned about Analilia, there’s an opportunity to test drive a Republican for six months.”

The winner of Thursday’s election will have an immediate impact on the razor-thin US House majority. House Speaker Mike Johnson is now able to lose two GOP defections on party-line votes and still pass legislation. A Mejia victory would shrink that margin yet again.

Hathaway and Mejia are both also running in their party’s June primaries for a full two-year term that would start in January.

AIPAC’s attacks on Malinowski boosted a more strident Israel critic

A Mejia win would be a reminder of how AIPAC’s efforts to punish a former ally backfired.

Prior to February’s primary, Malinowski had raised the most money and was well known thanks to his two terms in Congress representing a nearby district. He campaigned as the candidate most ready to jump into the role.

Then the United Democracy Project, a super PAC aligned with AIPAC, spent $2 million on ads attacking Malinowski and portraying him as supportive of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, pointing to his 2019 vote for a bipartisan spending bill that funded the agency.

“If AIPAC had never gotten involved, Tom Malinowski would be going to Congress right now,” said Julie Roginsky, a Democratic strategist who ran a super PAC supporting the former congressman.

The campaign came as a surprise given that Malinowski – a self-described Zionist – had a strong pro-Israel voting record. AIPAC, however, took issue with the former congressman’s willingness to place conditions on aid to Israel. “I wouldn’t promise a blank check in advance for anything a prime minister would ask for,” Malinowski told The New York Times in January.

After his loss, Malinowski blasted AIPAC in an op-ed published by The Bulwark, arguing that the group’s attacks on him were meant to intimidate other Democrats. He warned that if AIPAC’s vision of being pro-Israel “requires smearing even the most moderate elected officials who ask questions” then “the number of Americans (and the number of members of Congress) who pass its test will be too small to sustain any kind of relationship with the Jewish state.”

The attacks on Malinowski likely aided Mejia, who was the only candidate during a forum to raise her hand when asked if they agreed with human rights groups that have accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack. (Israel has denied genocide allegations.)

After the February race, a spokesperson for the United Democracy Project said the group would be monitoring the June primary for a full term, but a strong challenger to Mejia has not emerged. Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who finished third after being endorsed by Democratic Majority for Israel, another pro-Israel group, said in March she would not run again. And Malinowski endorsed and campaigned with Mejia ahead of Thursday’s election.

‘You meet people where they’re at’

Mejia says she advanced by running a grassroots campaign and focusing on voters’ economic concerns.

“I was able to connect with voters through that primary,” she said. “The closer we got to the election, I was trending. Why? Because, as an organizer, I know you meet people where they’re at.”

Though she’s never held political office, she spent several years working behind the scenes. She worked to help Democrats – including Malinowski and Sherrill – win Republican-held House seats in 2018 and pushed for a $15 minimum wage in the state as leader of the New Jersey Working Families Alliance.

Mejia has sought to broaden her appeal in the final weeks of the campaign.

“She’s done a very good job consolidating support since she won,” Roginsky said. “And if she continues to do that, when she’s in Congress, continues to listen to people in her district, which I’m sure she is, she’ll be fine.”

Asked if she sees herself as part of “The Squad,” the progressive group in the House that includes Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib, Mejia said the squad she’s most focused on is the voters in her district.

“If you were going to define me as anything, it’s a scrappy New Jersey soccer mom that is willing to stand up for you,” she said.

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