What to watch in Michigan’s Democratic Senate showdown and other key races in Tuesday’s primaries
By Eric Bradner, Aaron Blake, CNN
(CNN) — Michigan Democrats on Tuesday will settle a Senate primary that has emerged as the most significant test of the party’s direction this year — one that will gauge whether the progressive insurgency that has toppled establishment figures and incumbents on deep blue turf all spring and summer extends into one of the nation’s biggest political battlegrounds.
Progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed faces the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in the race to take on Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. The race has implications that extend into 2028, offering prospective presidential candidates a glimpse at what the party’s electorate wants in Michigan, likely to be one of the first six states to vote in the Democratic nominating calendar and a must-win in the general election.
Most important, though, is what Tuesday’s outcome means for Democrats’ chances of netting the four-seat gain they need to take the Senate majority in November. The Democratic establishment in Washington believes Stevens is best-positioned to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters in the party’s hands. But if El-Sayed wins, progressives who have long maintained that their approach can build a new coalition will have their chance to prove it.
The race is one of several high-profile contests on the ballot Tuesday in primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington state.
In Michigan and Missouri, democratic socialists will look to unseat two more incumbent House Democrats. In Kansas, the party could nominate a pastor with a short but prolific fundraising record in a long-shot Senate contest.
Tuesday’s races will also settle open gubernatorial primaries in Kansas and Michigan, both of which could be competitive in November.
And in Virginia, Democrats will set about trying to flip as many as three seats, after the state Supreme Court invalidated a congressional map that could have given them a better chance at winning four.
Here are the key races to watch in Tuesday’s primaries:
Michigan Senate battle tests Democratic Party’s direction
After a season of primary battles that brought into clear view the Democratic Party’s clear divides over ideology and electability, Tuesday’s showdown in Michigan might be the biggest of all.
The electorate is expected to break down along lines similar to the last two Democratic presidential primaries. El-Sayed’s campaign believes he will be strongest with the same voters who propelled Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to a win in the 2016 Michigan primary: White progressives and young voters. Stevens’ support is expected to come from the coalition that helped Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden ultimately defeat Sanders for the party’s nomination those last two elections: Older voters and particularly Black voters in and around Detroit.
El-Sayed has highlighted his opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks, his support for expanding Medicare to cover all Americans in place of private health insurance and his rejection of corporate money in politics. Touting her role staffing the Obama administration’s bailout of the automotive industry, Stevens pitches herself as the most electable candidate in November, calling herself a “workhorse” focused on pocketbook issues and El-Sayed a “show horse” with larger political ambitions.
One way to understand the importance of the Michigan Senate primary to the overall trajectory of the Democratic Party is to examine how much outside spending flooded Michigan’s airwaves — nearly all of it intended to bolster Stevens and dent El-Sayed.
The biggest spender was the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which pumped nearly $32 million into television advertising intended to defeat El-Sayed via the super PAC United Democracy Project.
Combined, outside spending benefited Stevens over El-Sayed by about a 30-1 margin — with $62.2 million supporting Stevens and $2.1 million aligned with El-Sayed.
Next Democratic incumbent to fall?
In another marquee Michigan race, Rep. Shri Thanedar could become the next Democrat to lose his reelection bid to a democratic socialist challenger as he faces off with state Rep. Donavan McKinney.
But it’s not just progressives, including Sanders, who are rallying behind McKinney. Thanedar, 71, is an Indian American immigrant who represents a seat centered on majority-Black Detroit, and members of the Congressional Black Caucus have split on the 13th District primary — with several endorsing McKinney.
As Thanedar seeks a third term, he doesn’t have the political edge that has helped him in the past: A primary field of Black candidates who fractured the vote in several directions. Thanedar also angered some Democrats by pursuing a rogue effort to impeach Trump last year.
The unique dynamics of this race mean it might not carry the same broader implications about the direction of the Democratic Party as other primaries in which democratic socialists toppled incumbents in New York and Colorado.
A progressive win in a swing House district?
Potentially more relevant as a gauge of the direction of the Democratic Party is Michigan’s battleground 7th District, a Lansing-area seat where some in the party are anxious that a win by progressive activist William Lawrence could damage the party’s chances of ousting freshman Republican Rep. Tom Barrett.
The co-founder of the climate activist group the Sunrise Movement faces former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam in the three-way primary. Many Democrats fear that moderate votes will be split between Brink and Maasdam.
Lawrence ignited controversy when The Huffington Post in July reported that he’d said on a 2024 podcast that Black political leaders’ support for Democratic leadership “defangs the White left.” He has since apologized for those remarks.
He is supported by a number of prominent progressives, including Sanders, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib and California Rep. Ro Khanna. But New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who appeared on-stage at a rally that included Lawrence and El-Sayed, notably did not wade into the race.
A pastor looks to give Democrats a chance in Kansas Senate race
Kansas has a history of delivering Democrats surprise victories within the last decade. Two-term Gov. Laura Kelly twice beat Republicans in the red state. And in the immediate wake of the US Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, voters in 2022 overwhelmingly rejected an amendment that said there was no constitutional right to abortion in the state.
Adam Hamilton, a Democrat vying for the nomination to take on Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, is seeking to deliver the latest of those surprises — and improve Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate in November.
Hamilton, the founding pastor at United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, a megachurch in Kansas City, is pitching himself as a bridge-builder who would reject overt partisanship. First, though, he needs to defeat 10 other Democrats in Tuesday’s primary.
So far, he has proven to be the most prolific fundraiser in the Democratic field, raising $4.1 million in the first few months of his campaign with more than $1.7 million in the bank as of mid-July.
The Democratic effort to flip at least four GOP-held Senate seats will require the party to win in traditionally red states. North Carolina and Maine are among the party’s top targets, and the most favorable to Democrats. But they’ll also need some mix of Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas or even a longer-shot like Kansas to prove competitive in order to win the majority.
A rematch in St. Louis
Cori Bush is another democratic socialist who could unseat a Democratic incumbent — Rep. Wesley Bell — in a primary.
But their contest has its own dynamics: Bush has held the seat before. She ousted former Rep. William Lacy Clay in a 2020 primary and went on to join the progressive “Squad” during her two terms in Washington. Bell, bolstered by heavy outside spending from an AIPAC-linked super PAC, defeated Bush in the deep-blue, St. Louis-based district in 2024.
The Missouri 1st District primary is another test of what Democratic primary voters are looking for: a moderate who touts his work with the state’s overwhelmingly Republican delegation, or a progressive brawler more comfortable using the bully pulpit.
It’s also another race that pits a staunch ally of Israel in Bell against a critic of its actions in Gaza in Bush. Like 2024, AIPAC has spent heavily to bolster Bell, with the United Democracy Project super PAC pumping more than $3 million into the race.
Democrats vie to hold onto governor’s seats in Kansas and Michigan
Two states holding primaries on Tuesday — Kansas and Michigan — feature governor’s races this year, and both could be competitive come November.
Kansas has the more interesting and competitive primaries.
On the Democratic side, state Sen. Ethan Corson is backed by term-limited Gov. Kelly and vowing to work across the aisle in a similar fashion. State Sen. Cindy Holscher is promising a more combative, populist style taking Republicans head-on, but some fear that’s not a recipe for success in red Kansas.
On the GOP side, state Senate President Ty Masterson has the crucial Trump endorsement and would seem the favorite in a crowded field featuring, among others, Secretary of State Scott Schwab and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt. But he’s dealing with some late attacks on his past support for data center construction.
In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination and could build a national profile if she succeeds term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
On the GOP side, Trump-backed Rep. John James is trying to fend off the well-funded campaign of former long-shot presidential candidate Perry Johnson.
Democrats’ second take in Virginia
Democrats suffered a major setback in their quest to win back the House in May, when the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a new congressional map that had been approved by voters.
The map promised to add as many as four new Democratic-friendly seats and help the party offset new GOP districts that Republicans had drawn in other states.
But Virginia remains very important to Democrats’ majority math in 2026, thanks to a number of potential pickups.
The 1st and 2nd Districts are clearly their best shots, while they could have an outside shot in the 5th.
Perhaps the one big primary in these districts Tuesday is the Democratic race to face GOP Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor faces a crowded field that includes lawyer Salaam Bhatti, but she has largely locked down the major endorsements.
The other two races feature attempted comebacks from former Democratic members of Congress. Elaine Luria looks to face Rep. Jen Kiggans, while Tom Perriello seeks a match up with Rep. John McGuire.
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