Texas Democrats pull off the breakthrough they’ve chased for decades, reshaping national politics

By Patrick Svitek, CNN

(CNN) — For decades, Texas Democrats have dreamt of turning the state blue, rallying around exciting candidates who drew big crowds and big money but could not ultimately overcome the state’s stubborn conservative majority.

On Tuesday, their dream finally came true – and in dramatic fashion.

Not only did Democrats win the state’s high-profile Senate race, but they also captured the governor’s mansion and prevailed in other consequential races, ending a 32-year losing streak in statewide elections.

It marked a stunning rejection of one-party rule in the second most populous state in the country, with deep implications for national politics.

“You really can’t believe it’s happening, even though we’ve been working so hard to get here,” Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, a Houston Democrat, told CNN early Wednesday morning. “Just the enormity and the totality of it — I think it’s beyond anyone’s wildest imagination.”

Now, Republicans are staring down an even scarier possibility than losing statewide office: The notion that they can no longer count on Texas and its 40 electoral votes on the path to the White House.

“If the Republican Party doesn’t have Texas as an anchor, then we are not going to be viable nationally going forward,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters Wednesday morning.

The reversal of political fortunes in Texas was all the more striking because Republicans had seemed on the march there two years ago. President Donald Trump carried the state by his widest margins yet — 14 percentage points – and Hispanic voters in South Texas were swinging to the GOP.

That all felt like a distant memory by Wednesday morning.

Democratic Sen.-elect James Talarico carried most counties in predominantly Hispanic South Texas – and by convincing margins. He won the most populous county south of San Antonio, Hidalgo County, by 46 percentage points after Trump won it by 3 points in 2024. The swing was similarly dramatic in neighboring Cameron County.

In both counties, roughly 90 percent of the population is Hispanic.

“In one night, one election cycle, Democrats really erased multiple election cycles of losses with Latino voters,” said Stephanie Valencia, president of the Latino research firm Equis.

Many Democrats thought it was possible that Talarico, a state representative from Austin, could defeat the state’s Republican attorney general, Ken Paxton, in the Senate race. But they were not as sure that Gina Hinojosa, another Democratic state representative from Austin, could unseat three-term GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who spent over $140 million against her. And they certainly were not as confident that a third Austin Democrat, Vikki Goodwin, could take out Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the powerful presiding officer of the state Senate who has used his close relationship with Trump to reshape state politics over the last decade.

But by early Wednesday morning, all three of those Republicans had made concession statements, in scenes that were jarringly dissonant with their years of bravado about stamping out Democratic challengers.

Talarico and Hinojosa ran populist campaigns that appealed to working people’s frustrations with the wealthy and well-connected more than with any political party. They sidestepped culture-war issues that Republicans sought to put front and center.

The winning candidates were able to capitalize on national issues such as the war in Iran and tariffs in ways unique to Texas, said Michael Kolenc, a Democratic strategist.

“Those all increased the idea that costs were a huge problem, and then when you have really bad politicians like Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick and Donald Trump who are all in this corruption bucket, it was really easy to tell voters a story about why the status quo was harming them, harming their pocketbooks and why change was really needed,” he said.

As for the coming chapter in Texas politics, Kolenc added, “It’s a sea change.”

As Wednesday morning went on, Democrats won the contest for railroad commissioner, which regulates the state’s oil and gas industry. The GOP candidate in that race, Bo French, had a history of controversial rhetoric and caused a national uproar in September with a racist social media post about Asian students at the University of Texas. And Democrats were continuing to pick up seats in the state House, raising the possibility they could capture the majority there.

Even though the national landscape favored Democrats, their ranks in Texas had reason to be skeptical of a breakthrough this year.

Recent history is littered with Democratic statewide candidates who raised the party’s hopes of flipping the state but ultimately came up short. One of the most heartbreaking examples was Beto O’Rourke, the former El Paso congressman who thrilled Democrats with his 2018 run against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz but lost by less than 3 percentage points.

“I am so proud of Texas, so proud of this country,” O’Rourke wrote in a text message early Wednesday morning. “A lot of people put in a lot of work over a lot of years to make this happen. And Gina and James did the most — ran amazing campaigns that met the moment and won huge victories.”

Texas Democrats also had to overcome a series of unique hurdles this election cycle. One of them was the Republican-led redistricting of the state, done at Trump’s behest, that sought to add five seats to the GOP column. It mostly backfired, with Democrats winning at least three of the seats.

Then there was Elon Musk, the Texas-based billionaire who funneled over $200 million to keep the Senate seat red. It was virtually unprecedented for one donor to spend so much on one race – anywhere in the county.

Republicans, who have long derided the Democratic stars as too liberal for Texas and beholden to out-of-state donors, were shell-shocked as results came in.

Texas GOP Chairwoman D’rinda Randall said in a statement that the party would “reflect honestly, learn from our setbacks, and come back stronger.” The party’s vice chair, David Covey, was blunter, writing on X that voters “rejected the Republican status quo” and that the results were “our wake-up call.”

One statewide candidate, Don Huffines, did not hold back at his election night party. He blamed “mushy middle people” but also called out Abbott and Patrick for pursuing their fourth terms during a time of incumbent fatigue.

“I mean, seriously?” said Huffines, who lost his bid to remain Texas comptroller, the state’s top financial officer. “People are tired of the Republicans being in office. They couldn’t campaign on a policy issue. If they campaigned on lowering your property tax, guess what? All that did was remind everybody why you didn’t do it 12 years ago.”

Huffines also lamented that it would be “almost impossible to win this state back,” echoing the longtime GOP warning that a Democratic breakthrough in Texas could be irreversible – and make the state newly important to the presidential election.

“I think this puts Texas right at the heart of the map,” said Fletcher, the Houston Democrat. “I think anybody who knows the presidential politics knows that if you can win Texas and California, you’re a long way toward winning.”

This story has been updated with additional details.

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