The US says Venezuela is changing. But one month since Maduro’s capture, its people aren’t so sure

By CNN

(CNN) — One month after the US carried out an attack in Venezuela to capture its president, civilians in the South American country remain caught between uncertainty and expectations of governmental change.

Some believe the ouster of strongman leader Nicolás Maduro offers a glimmer of hope for rebuilding institutions and guaranteeing citizens’ rights. Others question whether this new phase – which the US and the government of acting President Delcy Rodríguez call a “transition” – will lead to democracy or if the change they hope for will stay on hold.

The days since the raid on Maduro’s compound have felt slow and difficult, according to one woman who saw the explosions from a distance with her boyfriend. The woman, a bioanalyst who lives in eastern Caracas and who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons, said she was still recovering from the ordeal. She doesn’t go out at night and suffers from anxiety, especially if she hears fireworks or loud noises. She said she is paying close attention to the situation in the country and waiting to see if a fundamental change is possible. “A real one,” she said.

First weeks, first actions

According to Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, at least 100 people died and 100 were wounded in the US operation that culminated in the arrest of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who was also a member of parliament.

Delcy Rodríguez, then vice president, assumed the role of acting president after the Supreme Court declared Maduro’s capture a forced absence – an unprecedented situation not defined in the Venezuelan Constitution. Since then, Rodríguez has insisted that the country is experiencing a new political moment and has already made several changes within the cabinet and the Bolivarian National Armed Forces. According to experts consulted by CNN, Rodríguez has made at least 28 significant changes within the armed forces.

But a month after Maduro’s capture, while some see reason for optimism in the economy and releases of political prisoners, the country remains on an uncertain path.

In Caracas, moods fluctuate between skepticism, optimism and bewilderment. The price of meat and chicken has fallen, real estate prices have risen 22%, according to economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, and airlines are beginning to return to Venezuela, including American Airlines. However, Venezuela remains on the list of countries with partial visa restrictions, and the deportation of Venezuelans continues to be a focus of the Trump administration.

The US Embassy in Caracas resumed operations with Laura Dogu as chargé d’affaires, and Venezuela appointed diplomat Félix Plasencia as its representative to Washington. Dogu made it clear on social media that her meeting with Delcy Rodríguez and her brother National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez aimed to reiterate three priorities outlined by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: stabilization, economic recovery, and reconciliation and transition. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil said this step marks the beginning of a new era in which Venezuela is committed to upholding international law.

Some politicians, such as opposition figures Andrés Velásquez and Delsa Solórzano, have come out of hiding now that Venezuela is no longer ruled by Maduro, but at the same time they say they remain cautious, as do citizens critical of those in power.

Carlos Núñez, an administrator, remains hopeful and believes that the release of political prisoners could set a precedent in the country. He believes that many legal, economic and social issues still need to be addressed, but the releases represent a major step forward for change.

Meanwhile, Jessica Díaz, a graphic designer, thinks things are going well and doesn’t believe change is necessary. “I hope the president and his wife return,” she said.

Another citizen, who preferred to remain anonymous for his own safety, said he remains vigilant because, despite talk of change, fear persists. “Even law-abiding citizens can be stopped in the street at any time for a search or to be questioned,” he said.

Waiting for a transition

Benigno Alarcón, a Venezuelan political expert who has studied and taught about political transitions around the world, says “the transition has not truly begun” a month after Maduro’s departure. He said even Rubio’s testimony to Congress last week – in which the secretary of state said the US was prepared to help oversee Venezuela’s transition from criminal state to responsible partner – suggests it’s a preparatory phase.

During a forum on the Venezuelan transition held in Caracas on January 29, Alarcón described the current situation as an unprecedented, coercive and uncertain process. He said that a genuine transition requires three converging elements that are currently lacking: a new, effective government; an institutional change in the rules; and decentralizing control of security forces. He concluded that it is not yet possible to say that Venezuela is in transition and added that those who want democracy are hoping for progress in that direction.

According to Alarcón, those in power have no enthusiasm for holding elections in the near future because they know it wouldn’t benefit them, so they intend to delay them as long as possible. He also believes that Delcy Rodríguez, in her role as acting president, is seeking to extend constitutional deadlines indefinitely to remain in power, with the support of the judiciary under an unprecedented scheme of enforced absence.

“It will depend on the polls. If they see a chance of winning, they’ll call for elections. If not, they’ll postpone them,” he argues. “They intend to buy time and maintain power,” Alarcón said, adding that external US pressure is key but insufficient. “Washington can offer incentives, but legitimacy only comes from the Venezuelan people through their vote. Society must demand democracy,” he said.

Regarding opposition leader María Corina Machado, he said that her presence abroad facilitates dialogue with governments. However, he believes she should return to Venezuela soon.

Alarcón welcomed the reopening of the US Embassy – not for visas but for “intelligence and economic controls in a country in conflict” – and the military’s symbolic pledge of subordination to Delcy Rodríguez as acting president.

However, the expert wants promises to be kept. The government claims to have released more than 800 political prisoners, but he says officials must identify the freed detainees, and as university students demand, the releases must not come with restrictions.

Alarcón says people are becoming impatient with the slow pace, but the process is moving forward in an orderly fashion, which he says raises the question of whether this coercive model will work or if delays will prevail.

‘Full’ release of political prisoners

Juan Carlos Apitz, the dean of the Faculty of Legal and Political Sciences at the Central University of Venezuela, believes the current moment is neither a full transition nor a continuation of the current regime, but rather a “moment for the citizens” who must establish democracy by respecting the constitution and the results of the July 28, 2024, elections. The opposition says its candidate Edmundo González won and that it has the tally sheets to prove it. The National Electoral Council insists Maduro was the victor but has refused to release the tally sheets.

In Apitz’s view, “the first step towards democracy in Venezuela is the full and unconditional release of all political prisoners.” He believes that, in this regard, mere prison visits are unacceptable while families continue to wait. He maintains that the repressive apparatus has not been dismantled and that there have been no substantial changes yet.

He also questions what he considers the military paradox of January 28, when the armed forces recognized Delcy Rodríguez as commander-in-chief, a position incompatible with Maduro holding that role. “There cannot be two commanders,” he said.

Apitz further points out that when discussing January 3, only victims are mentioned, but no one is held accountable. “Where are the public authorities who allowed the territorial integrity to be violated and Maduro’s removal to take place?”

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