Weather Insider: El Niño update – March 2024

The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, issues periodic updates on El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. As a reminder, El Niño is just one phase of a larger cycle called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). We have been in El Nino conditions since the late spring/early summer of 2023, meaning ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are at least 0.5°C warmer than average.

The most recent update was released on March 14th. While we still remain under El Nino, the CPC has begun to see a decrease in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This, along with other factors, points toward a weakening El Nino.

The CPC is forecasting a strong (83%) chance of El Niño transitioning to a neutral phase between April and June. They are also forecasting a moderate chance (62%) of a return to La Niña conditions sometime this summer.