Hurricane Rafael heads west out of Cuba as a Category 2 storm after causing power system to collapse
By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist
(CNN) — Hurricane Rafael slammed into Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday afternoon before losing some strength as it passed over the island and entered the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is moving away from western Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane, and conditions on the island are expected to improve overnight, with winds, rain, and storm surge diminishing.
The hurricane, which caused the island’s power grid to crash, is the fifth major hurricane of the year in the Atlantic and the strongest this late in the year since 2020.
The storm’s winds strengthened from 60 mph to 115 mph from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon, an increase well over the 35 mph needed for rapid intensification. As Rafael moved over Cuba, it weakened slightly to a Category 2 hurricane, with 105 mph maximum sustained winds.
Rapid intensification is happening more frequently as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic basin this year.
In the Florida Keys, tropical storm warnings remain active from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, which connects the Middle Keys and the Dry Tortugas, with conditions likely persisting through Wednesday night.
Rafael is expected to turn to the west and slow on Thursday, likely meandering along the southern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. It is unlikely at this time that this storm will impact the northern Gulf of Mexico with the hurricane center only warning that the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should keep up to date on Rafael. There is still some uncertainty at the end of the forecast models about where the storm will end up, which will continue to be monitored.
A more confident forecast will be possible as the storm churns over the waters of the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
Power out across Cuba
Rafael delivered a devastating blow as the first Category 3 hurricane to hit the country since Ian in 2022.
Western Cuba might see an additional 2-4 inches of rainfall into Thursday, bringing storm totals to up to a foot of rainfall from Rafael. Hurricane-force winds will batter the western part of the country until late Wednesday.
Thousands of people in the western Artemisa province were evacuated from coastal zones, officials said on state TV before landfall. Rafael’s core came ashore just east of Playa Majana in the province.
The national electric system collapsed due to strong winds as Rafael approached the island, government officials said.
“We had several trips of the load of the system in the western zone that caused oscillations in the frequency of the system and caused it to collapse completely,” Félix Estrada Rodríguez, the director of the national dispatch of the Electric Union, told state television. Officias will wait until the effects of the hurricane end in the western part of the island to begin to re-establish the service.
The Cuban civil defense has placed western and central provinces under a state of alarm, urging people there to limit their movement. The normally bustling streets of Havana were largely emptied on Wednesday afternoon.
While the center of the storm passed west of Havana, one wind gust in the capital reached 93 mph while another at the international airport was measured at 71 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This is the second blow from a hurricane in Cuba in recent weeks. Hurricane Oscar walloped Cuba in late October, killing at least seven people. The country’s power grid has collapsed multiple times, including when Oscar hit in October.
Rafael is the strongest hurricane to roam the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to data from the NOAA.
It’s forecast to become only the fifth hurricane to roam the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.
Rafael’s future track across the Gulf of Mexico is uncertain
Rafael’s potential track through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and over the weekend is slowly coming into focus but is far from certain.
Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to slam into the US this season, but the areas at risk are gradually being narrowed down.
“Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba this evening, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening and tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days,” the center said Wednesday afternoon.
Storm-disrupting upper level winds are likely to severely deteriorate Rafael the closer the storm gets to the US coastline, regardless of where that is. Current forecasts call for Rafael to return to tropical storm status by the weekend.
Chevron said it was transporting all personnel to shore and was shutting production at oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Rafael’s approach. Shell and BP moved some non-essential personnel off of several drilling platforms, according to news releases from both companies.
Rafael’s US impacts could be limited, but the same robust tropical moisture fueling the storm Wednesday could fuel torrential rainfall for the Southeast.
Forecasters said the lower and middle Florida Keys could receive 1 to 3 inches of rain.
Bursts of rain could cause dangerous flash flooding in the Southeast, but some areas could be slow to flood given how dry a lot of the soils are after a record-breaking October.
CNN’s Robert Shackelford, Taylor Ward, Brandon Miller, Steve Almasy, José Álvarez, Patrick Oppmann, Michael Rios, Dave Alsup and Hanna Park contributed to this report.
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