Thank El Niño for NOAA’s latest forecast for Atlantic hurricane season
By Meteorologist Mary Gilbert
(CNN) — Time is ticking down to the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first forecast for it is finalized.
NOAA’s team of experts is predicting a below-average hurricane season, similar to other experts’ forecasts in recent weeks. The anticipated return of El Niño — and its potential to become historically strong — is a major driving force behind the outlook.
Overall, NOAA says this season has a 55% chance of being a below-average hurricane season with 35% and 10% chances of near-average and above-average seasons, respectively.
Between eight and 14 total named storms — that means tropical storms and hurricanes — are expected in the basin from June 1 through November 30, when the season ends.
Of those, NOAA expects between three and six to become hurricanes, with up to three of those reaching major hurricane status — Category 3 or higher. An average Atlantic hurricane season generates 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
The last time NOAA forecast a below-average season was in 2015, which also had an El Niño. Twelve named storms roamed the basin that year.
Last year ended with 13 named storms, five of which were hurricanes. Three of those exploded to rare Category 5 status — Erin, Humberto and Melissa.
El Niño, the ultimate influencer
El Niño is a hot topic of conversation in the weather forecasting world right now and for good reason: It can play a major role how the Atlantic hurricane season plays out.
A quick refresher: El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that triggers changes in upper atmosphere patterns. Together, these factors influence weather globally over extended periods.
An El Niño isn’t officially in place yet — we’re in a neutral phase between it and its colder counterpart La Niña — but it’s expected to arrive early this summer, according to the latest forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Once in place, it’s expected to stick around at least through hurricane season.
El Niño usually tamps down tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean by increasing storm-disrupting winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, known as wind shear, which results in fewer storms than normal. That’s not guaranteed anymore in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution, though.
Extremely warm ocean temperatures acted like rocket fuel during the 2023 Atlantic season, allowing storms to develop and thrive despite El Niño’s increased wind shear.
This season could be different. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are still running warmer than normal at this point in the year, but are a far cry from 2023 and 2024’s back-to-back record levels.
These temperatures typically peak around August, so there’s months of warming ahead for them to potentially play spoiler.
What’s next?
The start of Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t guarantee a tropical system will spin up right away. Hurricane season just marks when most storms happen each year.
Typically, the first system to reach tropical storm status — winds of at least 39 mph — occurs around June 20. The first to reach hurricane status — winds of 74 mph — holds off until around August 11.
2025 basically stuck to that script: Tropical Storm Andrea arrived on June 24 and the first hurricane in the basin was Hurricane Erin on August 15.
The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows that no tropical activity is expected essentially through the end of May. Forecast signals look doubtful for early June, too.
Though, if early season storms do form, they’re much more likely to develop closer to the United States, like in the Gulf or near the Atlantic coast.
The-CNN-Wire
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