Rare, high-end tornado threat issued for central US as severe storm outbreak peaks Monday

By Meteorologists Taylor Ward, Briana Waxman, Chris Dolce, and Kate S. Petersen

(CNN) — A destructive outbreak of severe storms in the Plains will peak on Monday with potential intense tornadoes, giant hail, dangerous winds and flash flooding.

The threat comes after Sunday’s damaging storms, which produced about two dozen reports of tornadoes, baseball-sized and larger hail and wind gusts over 70 mph, especially from parts of Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota to northwest Iowa.

Supercell thunderstorms capable of intense, EF3 or stronger, tornadoes and softball-sized hail should fire up in the most at risk Central Plains by late Monday afternoon and early evening. A much larger area from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma and northwest Texas could also see isolated to scattered severe storms. The storm outbreak is expected to last through Tuesday.

The weather pattern is also creating a significant wildfire risk from New Mexico to West Texas and southwest Kansas.

The forecast

A widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected as a big surge of jet stream energy interacts with copious amounts of moisture in the Plains.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Level 4 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms from central Kansas to far northwest Missouri, southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska. A threat level this high is issued on only about 14 days per year.

Supercells that erupt in this area between 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. CT will likely spin up tornadoes — some of them potentially EF2 to EF3 or stronger — and produce very large hail. Manhattan, Topeka and Wichita, Kansas, are some of the cities in this zone of potentially most destructive storms.

A “particularly dangerous situation” tornado watch has been issued for northeast Kansas and far southeast Nebraska until 8 p.m. CT, including Salina, Kansas. This type of tornado watch is rare, and a sign stronger tornadoes that could be long-lasting are possible.

The higher-end tornado threat could be tempered somewhat if the supercells quickly merge into larger clusters, but that will be an uncertain factor until after the storms form.

Widespread damaging winds will become the primary concern by late evening as the storms spread east toward the Lower Missouri Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley, although a few tornadoes will still be possible into the overnight hours.

Torrential rainfall is also raising the threat of flash flooding, especially from western Missouri to eastern Kansas, including Kansas City, where there is a Level 3 out 4 flooding rainfall risk.

Severe storm and tornado potential will drop on Tuesday as the weather system pushes east. Still, there is a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms from northern Texas to Michigan. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats, both from leftover storms on Tuesday morning and new ones that fire up in the afternoon.

Extreme wildfire threat

The same system bringing dangerous tornadoes to the Central Plains and Midwest is the culprit for a Level 3 of 3, extremely critical fire threat in the southern High Plains Monday.

Sustained winds of 25 mph to 30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph and relative humidity under 10% will combine with dry vegetation to cause any fires that ignite to spread at a life-threatening pace, according to the National Weather Service.

Similarly dangerous conditions on Sunday sparked several fires that grew rapidly.

State disaster emergencies were declared in response to wildfires in Colorado and Kansas.

The Sharpe Fire has burned more than 28,000 acres from Oklahoma across the state line into Colorado and is 5% contained. A mandatory evacuation order was issued for residents in and around Campo in Baca County, Colorado, on Sunday afternoon over fears the fire could overrun the town, but was lifted late Sunday night. Firefighters established a fire line around the town that was holding and no occupied homes have been lost, according to a county social media post.

Over 100,000 acres have burned in a spate of wildfires across southwest Kansas. The Meade County Complex 1 is the largest at over 46,000 acres, and is 0% contained, according to the state forestry agency. Evacuations in Meade and Fowler, Kansas, on Sunday have since been lifted, according to the Meade County Sheriff’s Office.

Several wildfires are also burning on the Texas Panhandle. In Randall County, more than 55,500 acres have burned in the Hunggate and Chocolate Chip fires. A BNSF railroad trestle was lost in the Hunggate fire last week.

Tornadoes destroy homes in Nebraska

Storms rapidly developed Sunday afternoon from Kansas through Nebraska and Iowa to southern Minnesota.

A tornado hit north of Grand Island, Nebraska, in the town of St. Libory in Howard County. Multiple structures were damaged, and video at the scene showed two people and a dog being rescued from the basement of a collapsed home. No one was killed or injured, according to Howard County Emergency Management.

A tornado emergency — the most significant kind of tornado warning — was issued Sunday evening for a storm near Hebron, Nebraska, just over 10 miles north of the Kansas border. Tornado emergencies are issued only when forecasters are certain that a large, damaging tornado is incoming.

At least one home was destroyed, but no injuries were reported as of late Sunday evening, Director Colt Farringer of Thayer County Emergency Management told CNN.

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CNN’s Amanda Musa contributed to this report.