Democratic House primary in Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’ still too early to call

By Jeff Zeleny, CNN

(CNN) — The Democratic primary in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District was too early to call Wednesday morning as two candidates — political activist Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh — were locked in a close race in what is poised to become one of the nation’s most competitive contests this fall that could determine control of Congress.

It’s been a decade since Nebraska sent a Democrat to Congress, but Rep. Don Bacon’s decision to retire turned his Omaha-area district into a key November battleground. Bacon was one of only three Republicans in the country who won in a district that Kamala Harris also carried in 2024.

Yet talk of picking up a Republican seat in November largely took a back seat to a spirited Democratic primary over which candidate would protect – or imperil – the so-called blue dot, a feature of the state’s unique method of awarding electoral votes in presidential elections.

Powell and Cavanaugh gained the most national attention as a multimillion-dollar advertising war over the fate of the blue dot, abortion rights and a handful of other issues dominated the conversation.

But voters also weighed the candidacies of four other rivals, including Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County District Court endorsed by Omaha Mayor John Ewing, and Kishla Askins, a Navy veteran and former deputy assistant secretary of Veterans Affairs.

Republicans cleared the field in their race, with Omaha city councilman Brinker Harding running unopposed for the Republican nomination. President Donald Trump endorsed Harding, setting up a contest that will measure the president’s popularity in the 2nd Congressional District, where Trump has lost two straight elections – and the blue dot’s Electoral College vote.

The Democratic quarreling over a unique state issue in Nebraska stands apart from the ideological fights in other competitive primary races across the country. The fight has attracted a deluge of outside spending from interest groups, with more than $6 million in advertising alone, according to AdImpact.

Powell argued electing Cavanaugh to Congress would threaten the blue dot that the state’s 2nd Congressional District has colloquially become known as because he could no longer fight against Republican efforts to change state election law and make Nebraska a winner-take-all system like 48 other states.

Two outside progressive super PACs invested more than $1 million on the Omaha airwaves seeking to amplify Powell’s argument: If Cavanaugh were elected to Congress and gave up his position in the state legislature, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would fill the seat with someone who would vote to eliminate the so-called blue dot.

In response, Cavanaugh aired ads of his own, calling his opponent “Dark Money Denise.”

His campaign and allies planted yard signs across the district vowing to “stand up to Trump and defend the blue dot.” Six fellow state senators signed an open letter to voters last month, saying the attacks were misguided and Democrats were likely to win other legislative races to offer a counterweight to his seat.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in the country that divide Electoral College votes by congressional district, rather than a statewide winner-take-all formula. Under the system, the statewide winner receives two electoral votes, and the rest are split, one apiece, among the leading vote-getters in each district.

Trump won all five Nebraska electoral votes in 2016, but won only four in his races in 2020 and 2024. Fearful of the prospect of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, Trump and his allies mounted a last-ditch effort to change the Nebraska law. It was not successful, but it proved to be a moot point as Trump defeated Harris 312-226.

Powell, in her first run for elected office, previously operated a political action committee called Women Run Nebraska. In ads, she describes herself as “one pissed-off mom.”

The late Rep. Brad Ashford is the last Democrat to serve in the Nebraska seat, which he held for a single term. He lost reelection to Bacon in 2016.

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This story has been updated with additional information and to correct the spelling of Kishla Askins’ name.