Rebels jeered Putin’s troops out of a key African town. Now his regional grip is slipping away

By Nimi Princewill, CNN

Abuja (CNN) — When Russian forces withdrew last month from the strategic stronghold of Kidal in northern Mali — retreating under the jeers of the very rebels they were sent to crush — they surrendered more than just territory.

Observers characterize the withdrawal of the Kremlin-backed Africa Corps as a humiliating blow to Moscow’s prestige as a leading security partner in Africa’s Sahel region, widely considered the world’s deadliest terror hotspot.

Since militants linked to al Qaeda and the northern separatist Tuareg rebels launched simultaneous attacks on April 25 — the most audacious in over a decade — Mali has plunged deeper into chaos. Their rare alliance enabled a rapid campaign that saw several military bases overrun across northern Mali.

Facing encirclement in the desert town of Kidal, the Africa Corps — now operating under Russia’s Defense Ministry after replacing the Wagner Group — negotiated a safe-passage agreement with militants to evacuate its personnel. The episode underscored growing limits to Moscow’s ability to protect its allies, mirroring recent failures to secure the regimes of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and the leadership in Iran.

Kidal, which is about 1,000 miles northeast of the capital Bamako, was seized by the Malian army and Russian mercenaries in 2023, bringing an end to nearly a decade of rebel rule.

That victory symbolized Moscow’s dominance over Western efforts in Africa and highlighted Russia’s growing influence in the Sahel, where anti-Western sentiment has been on the rise. The Sahel stretches more than 3,000 miles across Africa just below the Sahara Desert and includes swathes of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Cameroon and The Gambia.

Russia stepped into this space after Western forces, which were involved in counterterrorism operations in parts of the Sahel, were forced out by various governments in the region between 2022 and last year.

Mali, a former French colony long gripped by insurgency, is governed by a military junta following consecutive coups in 2020 and 2021. After cutting ties with French forces and United Nations peacekeepers, the regime turned to Moscow for security support.

However, the fall of Kidal now exposes the fragility of that strategy.

On April 26, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a mainly Tuareg separatist group, declared on social media that it had reached an agreement with Russian troops to vacate Kidal permanently, proclaiming the town “is now free.”

Videos soon emerged online showing Tuareg fighters mocking a convoy of departing Russian vehicles fleeing their base.

The crisis deepened with the assassination of Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara, a Russian-trained officer and key architect of Mali’s shift toward Moscow. He was killed in a suicide vehicle bombing at his home near Bamako. The al Qaeda-linked group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed responsibility for the attack on Camara’s home.

With JNIM now threatening a complete blockade of Bamako and urging Malians to revolt against the junta and adopt Sharia law, the regime’s promises to “neutralize” these threats with Russian support appear unconvincing.

Russian promises falling short

As Western influence in Africa declines, Russia has become the top choice for embattled leaders seeking security assistance without the West’s human rights conditions. However, Moscow’s approach is largely transactional: security for resources.

The scale of Africa’s pivot to Russia was highlighted at the 2023 Russia–Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, where President Vladimir Putin announced military cooperation pacts with more than 40 nations.

However, Russia’s military presence in Africa was pioneered by the Wagner Group, which operated in troubled nations such as Libya, Mozambique and the Central African Republic (CAR) long before.

In CAR, one of the world’s poorest nations and where Wagner’s structure has remained entrenched since 2018, CNN investigations found that companies linked to its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin — who is now deceased — had secured concessions to mine gold and diamonds.

While the CAR government credits “Russian instructors” with training its army and helping prevent total state collapse, these victories remain fragile as armed rebels continue to control portions of the country.

The transition from Wagner to the Africa Corps has not halted rising insecurity in militarily- led Sahelian nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Analysts argue that Russia’s promises have largely fallen short. “The only victory of the Russians (in Mali) was the conquest of Kidal in 2023,” says Mali-based Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the German think-tank Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Héni Nsaibia, a senior analyst at the crisis-monitoring group, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), adds that the Kremlin’s security model is a surface-level fix for a deep-seated crisis in the Sahel.

While it can provide quick military support, “it does very little to address the underlying drivers of militancy in the region, such as weak governance, corruption, socio-economic marginalization, ethnic tensions, and lack of state legitimacy,” he told CNN.

A reputational setback

As Kidal returns to rebel hands, Bakary Sambe, director of the Senegal-based Timbuktu Institute think-tank, says it marks “a significant reputational setback” for Putin in Africa.

“Kidal’s fall and the humiliating and filmed retreat of the Russians have massively damaged Moscow’s reputation and its ambitions in Africa,” Laessing added, suggesting that confidence in the Africa Corps could decline.

Laessing asserted that the perception that Russian forces withdraw under pressure may deter future partnerships.

Still, analysts caution that Russia remains vital to Mali’s leadership. Its presence has strengthened the country’s military capacity and helped stabilize the regime, at least temporarily, according to Nsaibia.

Russian forces have suffered heavy casualties in Mali, including a deadly ambush in 2024 that killed multiple Wagner fighters.

Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that the situation in Mali “remains challenging,” disclosing that while the Africa Corps withdrew from Kidal, it prevented a broader collapse by thwarting an attempted coup on April 25.

It warned that militant groups remain active and are regrouping.

Tuareg representatives, meanwhile, have called on Russian forces to leave Mali entirely, predicting the eventual fall of the junta.

Can the Sahel look beyond Moscow?

As insecurity intensifies, Mali’s junta faces a strategic dilemma.

“A regime’s survival cannot be staked on a single external partner, especially one that just failed to prevent the most significant single-day offensive the country has suffered since 2012,” analyst Sambe argued.

There are signs that Mali and its regional allies are diversifying their security partnerships.

Alongside Burkina Faso and Niger, Mali has formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), initially formed as a political bloc in response to regional sanctions imposed after their respective coups. The AES has, however, evolved into a mutual defense pact.

The three countries have also expanded defense procurement from countries such as China and Turkey, signaling a broader search for alternatives.

Yet options remain limited.

Russia is still the only partner willing to deploy combat forces directly into frontline operations – a critical factor for regimes battling insurgencies – which ties Mali to Moscow, Laessing remarked.

“In the end, Mali has no option but to work with Russia,” he concluded.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.