‘This is far worse’: When conflict 2,000 miles away compounds civil war at home

By Helen Regan, and Su Chay, CNN

(CNN) — Maung Nu Sein needs fuel to plow, and fertilizer to nourish his rice as planting season approaches. But the ships carrying his crucial cargo are trapped 2,000 miles away by Iran’s stranglehold of one of the world’s most important waterways.

Now, the farmer is running the calculations. Can he survive when the costs of fuel and farming come to more than he earns from selling rice?

“There are many farmers who are abandoning their land as they have been struggling with everything,” the 72-year-old told CNN from his home in western Myanmar.

A civil war in his country, sparked by a military coup in 2021, had been raging for five years before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. The war in Myanmar has displaced millions, divided the country into military- and non-military-controlled areas, and gutted the economy and healthcare system.

Farmers like Maung Nu Sein were already grappling with low rice prices as well as soaring fuel and food costs due to the civil war and the military’s blockade of their coastal state. But the added impact of the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing others in his community in Rakhine state to the extreme, he said.

“Some still hold on to working on some parts of their land because they need to eat,” he said. “If we entirely abandon it, the whole community and society will fail because rice is a primary source of food here in our country.”

Myanmar relies on imports for 90% of its fuel and almost all of its fertilizer, from China, the Middle East and around the region to power its agricultural economic backbone.

But the war with Iran has disrupted the supply of those crucial ingredients. Fuel shortages mean transporting goods is more expensive, so prices for energy, food, medicine and other basic items have also risen as supplies begin to dwindle.

“The consequences of the Middle East war are having a huge impact here to people already being affected by civil war. This is far worse,” Maung Nu Sein said.

‘This war is choking us’

A third of all seaborne fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to UN figures, snaking its way from the hot, sand deserts of the Middle East to the flooded, fertile fields of Asia.

Without it, fewer crops will grow. Combined with soaring transport and fuel costs, which are essential for everything from running pumps and irrigation to harvesting rice and getting it to market, farmers may not be able to afford to plant the next season’s crop.

Rice is the main food staple for much of the population and most of Myanmar’s rice cultivation is for domestic use. But its exports – which generated $861 million last year – are also a major source of revenue and foreign currency.

A reduction in crop yield “is absolutely critical, not just for the farmers but the general food supply within the country,” said World Food Programme (WFP) regional director for Asia Pacific, Samir Wanmali.

“And we’re approaching the farming season, we’re approaching the time when fertilizer is at its highest demand, rice is being produced, water is required, so really the timing cannot be worse for the people of Myanmar, in particular the people in Rakhine.”

Maung Nu Sein says he has had to reduce the area of land he farms by half since last year, due to rising costs.

“Plowing a field used to cost only $24 worth of fuel before, and then it increased to $240 and then to $476. It has gone beyond our capability to continue farming,” he said.

“The rice we sell does not even cover the cost of fuel, let alone workers’ costs.”

As a result, Maung Nu Sein says he struggles to feed his family of seven and if the crisis doesn’t improve, he will be forced to borrow funds or pawn his property.

“This war is increasingly choking us. All we can do is storm through this by eating half a meal per day,” he said.

Myanmar Rice Federation chairman Ye Min Aung told CNN that higher prices for fuel, fertilizer and transport are “putting additional pressure on farmers, millers, traders, and exporters” of the staple crop.

The WFP has warned that 45 million more people around the world will be in acute food insecurity if the conflict doesn’t end by the middle of the year. Already there are 12.5 million hungry people in Myanmar, many of them living in remote areas or displaced by the civil war.

Despite his precarious situation, Maung Nu Sein says he fares better than some. Outside his farm he sees displaced people begging for food on the streets.

“Many are starving out there,” he said.

Begging to survive

Fuel and fertilizer needed for the rice crop are just the latest necessities to become unaffordable in Rakhine state, which has been devastated by intense fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA), one of the many rebel groups in the country.

The fighting forced Ma Khin Than, 46, from her home, and she is now sheltering in a makeshift displacement camp in Myebon.

Tarpaulins make do for roofs and floors on a patch of open ground that will become sodden with water when the rains start in the coming weeks. Cooking utensils and small mounds of clothes are kept in plastic bags or heaped on the ground.

Ma Khin Than says she walks the roads between villages begging for food.

“Sometimes, I get some rice and cloths, sometimes I get nothing,” she said.

“We are starving. My daughters want to go to school, but they cannot. We live like a street dog or pig.”

“Yesterday, we did not have food to eat. Today, thanks to two cans of rice, we will get to eat,” she said. “But all we have is rice. So, I am grinding chili to eat with it.”

Ma Khin Than’s eldest son’s wife recently gave birth, but she isn’t producing enough milk for the baby, who was hospitalized last week. “She cannot afford to feed bottle milk either,” Ma Khin Than said.

Last August, the WFP warned of surging hunger and “alarming levels of food insecurity” in Rakhine due to the civil war and a military blockade on humanitarian aid and other supplies to the state.

Nine months on, the disruptions triggered by the Iran war could have catastrophic consequences for people in Rakhine.

“If they are not able to get the assistance, we will see increasing levels of destitution, and worst-case scenario we will see… famine-like situations,” WFP’s Wanmali said.

Ma Khin Than said her primary concern is for the safety of her two daughters, who are 18 and 13, as there is nowhere private for them to sleep in the makeshift camp. The girls need menstruation products, she says, but what little money they make from finding casual work at the market is spent on food for the family.

Even those living in Myanmar’s major cities, which have largely escaped the fighting, are feeling the pinch. Costs for basic staple foods like rice, salt and pulses have risen by about 22% since the start of the Iran war, according to the WFP.

“Where there is close to no fuel availability, we are seeing an average spike up to 30, 40, 50% depending on where you are,” Wanmali said.

Khin Khin, resident of Myanmar’s biggest city Yangon and mother of two sons, said her daily costs have doubled from a year ago.

“With each month for their school fees and other soaring commodity prices, saving is not an option anymore,” Khin Khin, who asked to use a pseudonym for security reasons, told CNN by phone. “And I only cook vegetables most of the time because I cannot afford to eat more than that.”

The shipping crisis had disrupted her tailoring business as she says thread and fabric costs have sharply risen.

“I cannot buy some fabrics as before. I don’t get to sew the clothes as regularly,” she said. “I think the ships are not coming as before. With everything that is happening, it is very suffocating.”

Though conditions are more acute in Myanmar due to the civil war, experts warn the chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz could also dent rice production across the region – with potentially huge shocks for food security.

Last year, Asia had a booming rice harvest and there are “ample supplies in the market,” said Alisher Mirzabaev, senior scientist for policy analysis and climate change at the International Rice Research Institute.

“But it doesn’t mean we should be complacent, because the rice situation is very fragile.”

El Niño conditions, which usually bring hotter, drier weather to Southeast Asia, are expected later this year and could further impact rice production.

“These compounding, cascading shocks” could have a “big impact on food security,” Mirzabaev said.

Myanmar’s military-backed government said last week that efforts were underway to encourage farmers to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers during the monsoon paddy season in favor of natural fertilizers, according to state-run media.

Maung Nu Sein said farmers like him are “dealing with insurmountable difficulties,” but the people are depending on them for food.

“Regardless of the deepened struggles, I will continue to work as a farmer. I believe this will somehow help the community that is suffering from the war,” he said.

“If we don’t do the farming, who will feed us?”

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