Weather Insider: La Nina Update – Nov. 2024
On November 14th, the Climate Prediction Center released its latest update on what's happening with La Nina. As a recap, La Nina is one of three phases in the climate cycle known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). The other two are El Nino and the Neutral phase. La Nina represents cooler-than-usual ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and El Nino represents warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures.
The CPC says we remain under neutral conditions and we remain under a La Nina Watch. They give a 57% chance of La Nina forming sometime by the end of the year and continuing through the winter. La Nina tends to push the jetstream north. As a result, winter storms are statistically more likely to follow a similar track. This would result in a drier winter for the Southwest and a cooler, wetter winter for the northern tier of the nation.
Even though it may stay a bit drier for us here in the desert southwest, the more northern track may lead to some extra precipitation in states like Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado which will eventually make its way to the colorado river basin. It's also important to remember that the potential impacts from La Nina are not a forecast, statistical likelihoods.
