Weather Insider: 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast
Colorado State University has released its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season. They are forecasting another more active than usual season for the Atlantic Basin. According to their report, they predict 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 17 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). This compares to the average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The Atlantic basin experiences the most year-to-year variability of any tropical cyclone basin on the planet. As a result, there are a number of different factors scientists look at early in the season to give some indications as to how things will shape up. They examine factors like sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and the status of El Nino/La Nina. We are currently in weak La Nina conditions with a likely chance of transitioning to the neutral phase in the coming weeks/months.
When we're in an El Niño phase, it can lead to more chaotic winds in the Atlantic. Therefore, La Nina and neutral phases tend to lean toward less wind shear (the changing of wind speed and/or direction with height). Higher amounts of wind shear have the potential to rip hurricanes apart, limiting their development and growth.
