Stock market today: Wall Street drifts as it heads toward the close of another winning month

By STAN CHOE
AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks are drifting Monday as Wall Street rolls toward the end of another winning month.

The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged in afternoon trading, on track for a fifth straight month of gains, which would be its longest winning streak in nearly two years. The index is near a 16-month high after rallying on hopes cooling inflation will mean the economy can avoid a long-predicted recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 45 points, or 0.1%, at 35,506 as of 1:43 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1% higher.

To be sure, critics have been saying Wall Street’s seemingly growing consensus for a soft landing for the economy has come too quickly. Several reports this upcoming week could poke holes in the theory that inflation will keep coming down enough for the Federal Reserve to not only stop hiking interest rates but to begin cutting them by early next year.

Big names in the market, such as Rob Arnott at Research Affiliates, are warning not to be “overly hasty in popping the champagne corks.” Arnott sees the possibility of inflation rebounding again later this year, even though it’s cooled considerably recently.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has pointed to Friday’s upcoming report on the overall U.S. job market as an important datapoint. Growth needs to be strong enough to keep a lid on worries about a possible recession. But a reading that’s too hot could also mean upward pressure on inflation, which could push the Fed to get more aggressive about rates.

High rates undercut inflation by slowing the overall economy and dragging on prices for stocks and other investments. The Fed has already hiked its main rate to its highest level in more than two decades, a jolting shock after the rate began last year at virtually zero.

Two of Wall Street’s most influential stocks are also set to report their earnings for the spring. Amazon and Apple are both scheduled to release their latest quarterly results on Thursday. Because they’re two of the most massive stocks on Wall Street, their stock movements pack much more punch for the S&P 500 and other indexes than other stocks.

Both stocks have soared this year, in part on expectations for strong continued growth, and they’ll need to deliver to justify the big moves. Both Apple and Amazon are up more than 50% so far this year.

Roughly halfway through the earnings reporting season, more companies than usual have topped analysts’ profit expectations, according to FactSet. Companies also seem to be more optimistic about their upcoming results, giving better-than-expected profit forecasts more often than usual, according to strategists at Bank of America.

“While economic uncertainty remains, we believe the profit cycle is inflecting higher,” the strategists wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

ON Semiconductor rose 3% for one of the larger gains in the S&P 500 after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. The company, known as onsemi, also gave a forecast for profit in the current quarter that topped analysts’ expectations.

On the losing end was Tempur Sealy International. The mattress company said it discovered a cybersecurity event last week, which pushed it to shut down some of its technology systems. It has resumed operations after what it called a temporary interruption and is working to determine the incident’s full impact. Its stock fell 4%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes in Europe were a bit higher higher after data showed Europe’s economy has grown modestly after months of stagnation.

In Asia, stocks rose in Hong Kong and Shanghai amid hopes Beijing will deliver more stimulus for the sluggish Chinese economy.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields slipped after a report suggested manufacturing in the Chicago region is weakening a bit more than economists expected. Manufacturing has been one of the hardest-hit areas in the economy by high interest rates, which work with a notoriously long lag effect.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.94% from 3.96% late Friday.

___

AP Business Writers Matt Ott, Elaine Kurtenbach and Joe McDonald contributed.