Heat risk ramps up as forecasters discuss abnormality of early-season heat wave

COACHELLA VALLEY, Calif. (KESQ) – The Coachella Valley is bracing to feel summer heat in the middle of March.

It comes as forecasters warned of temperatures in the ballpark of 20 to 30 degrees above seasonal averages, with records expected to be shattered as peak heat arrives on Thursday and Friday near 110° throughout the low desert.

The Coachella Valley is expected to see major HeatRisk – a metric used by the National Weather Service to determine how heat will impact human populations within a given area.

HeatRisk uses five components to determine how dangerous the heat is for people, including the following:

• Temperatures (both high temperatures and the overnight low, which provides relief)
• Time of year (earlier than usual, or typical for the season?)
• Duration of the heat
• How acclimated residents are
• Studies and insight from partner agencies, like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

The National Weather Service posted this graphic, seen below. It illustrates the chances for Palm Springs to break its March high temperature record, currently set at 104° – nearly certain Wednesday through Friday.

Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's San Diego Office, said this heat wave will be historic.

"I understand these are temperatures that are pretty typical for the Coachella Valley in the summer months, but we are not in summer," he said. "We are currently in March. And so just to put it in perspective, this is very anomalous for this time of year."

Westerink pulled several pieces of historical data for the Coachella Valley. The NWS has never issued an Extreme Heat Warning (formerly known as Excessive Heat Warnings) as early as March in the roughly 20 years it has issued those advisories with its current criteria.

The earliest it was issued for the Coachella Valley previously: April 24, 2020.

"This Extreme Heat Warning now would supersede that by around a little bit over a month in terms of the earliest that we've ever issued one for the Coachella Valley," Westerink explained.

And as temperatures approach 110° for Thursday and Friday, Westerink highlighted Palm Springs and Indio, on average, record the first 110° high temperature of the year in early- to mid-June (June 4th and June 10th, respectively). For Palm Springs, the earliest time that happened was April 7th, 1989. In Indio, the earliest day: May 1st... way back in 1949.

If either location makes it to 110° in the coming days, we would be weeks, if not months, ahead of schedule.

While residents who live in the Coachella Valley year-round know they can handle the heat during the summer, snowbirds and other seasonal residents should pay special attention to the heat.

Many cities in the valley are also moving towards reopening resources to keep their residents safe from the heat in the coming days, ahead of schedule. That includes cooling centers being reopened in Palm Springs.

The City of Palm Desert continues to work to reopen the Palm Desert Aquatic Center amid renovations to the pool's filter system, which has been delayed several weeks.