Could the “big one” be triggered by Ridgecrest?
After the rolling of two major earthquakes more than 170 miles (ca. 274 km) away from the Greater Palm Springs area, the big question for the Coachella Valley: Could the seismic activity in Ridgecrest cause an earthquake close to home?
“At this time, we don’t think it’s likely that it’s going to trigger an earthquake on the San Andreas,” said USGS Geophysicist Paul Caruso.
But we have seen some shaking. Small, detectable quakes and microquakes under magnitude 2.0. Caruso didn’t want to speculate if these are connected to the seismic activity in Ridgecrest but did say we’re always seeing some form of minor shaking in the state.
Desert naturalist tour guide Teresa Jarrett with Desert Adventures takes groups through the local section of the San Andreas Fault, answering questions about seismic activity around the region.
“In California and Nevada we have over a thousand earthquakes weekly. With this recent earthquake in Ridgecrest, it’s up to about over three thousand,” said Jarrett.
Specific earthquakes cannot be predicted, but there is a forecast for potential seismic activity around Ridgecrest. According to Caruso, for this next week:
The chance for an earthquake 3.0+ is 99% The chance of a 5.0+ is 56% The chance of a 6.0+ is 8% The chance of a 7.0+ is only 1%
Both the 6.4 and 7.1 magnitude quakes were considered shallow, which means waves were able to travel quickly and be felt across the region. But could that have been the “big one” we always talk about? Caruso said no. The “big one” refers to a major quake on the San Andreas Fault, which is adjacent to where we saw the seismic activity in Ridgecrest.
“Before the year 2030, there’s a 70% chance for a magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake in Southern California,” said Caruso.
“We have not had a major earthquake in the southern part since about 1690, and they occur every 140 to 200 years, so we’re way overdue,” said Jarrett.
A reminder that now is the time to prepare.
