Markets are trying to fight the Fed on rate cuts. It’s not working

Analysis by Bryan Mena, CNN

Washington, DC (CNN) — A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

Federal Reserve officials are planning to finally cut interest rates this year and Wall Street thinks that first cut will come as soon as March.

But investors’ hopes are slowly dwindling. Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. That’s down from expectations that were around 70% only a few weeks ago, as the market rejoiced in seeing inflation steadily inch closer to the Fed’s 2% target throughout 2023.

A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an influential official at the central bank, said in a speech last week that there is no rush to cut rates.

“When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully,” he said Tuesday during a virtual discussion hosted by The Brookings Institution.

“With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2%, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” he said.

He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic.

“I think March is probably too early in my estimate for a rate decline because I think we need to see some more evidence,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who votes on policy moves this year, told Bloomberg TV recently.

She added that the latest Consumer Price Index, which showed that inflation picked up slightly in December, “just shows there’s more work to do, and that work is going to take restrictive monetary policy.”

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also shared a similar sentiment Friday in an interview with Fox Business.

“While I think it’s appropriate for us to look forward and ask when would policy adjustments be necessary so we don’t put a stranglehold on the economy, it’s really premature to think that that’s around the corner,” she said. Daly also votes on interest-rate decisions this year.

In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut.

Retail sales rose 0.6% in December from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, beating economists expectations and showing that Americans are still fueling the economy with their spending.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, so spending figures are looked at closely to gauge the economy’s health.

The job market also appears to remain on a strong footing. New applications for jobless benefits dropped in the week that ended on January 13 to a level not seen since the fall of 2022, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Employers added a robust 216,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate held steady at a low 3.7%.

A rapidly weakening economy would typically prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner and more aggressively, so stronger-than-expected economic data means there isn’t any urgency to cut rates, as Waller suggested last week.

Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.

“The upside surprise from jobless claims was a reminder to financial markets that the Fed is assuming a stronger path for the economy and more persistence of inflationary pressures than would be consistent with six interest rate cuts over the course of the year,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, told CNN.

There are still some risks that could stall inflation’s descent, or even cause it to reignite, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iran-backed militants in the Red Sea have shut down one of the world’s main trade routes for most container ships, which carry key parts for many consumer goods.

That could drive up consumer prices and there is still the risk that the geopolitical conflict pushes up energy prices.

“All of that is probably not going to stop the overall downward path of inflation, but it certainly could delay rate cuts,” Daniel Altman, chief economist at Instawork, told CNN.

But while the recent spate of strong economic data may dash hopes of early rate cuts, they also indicate that the Fed still has a decent shot at pulling off a so-called soft landing, which is a rare outcome in which inflation reaches 2% without a sharp rise in unemployment.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks after officials make their latest interest-rate decision later this month should give markets some additional clarity on what to expect from the central bank, which seems to be that a March rate cut is simply not in the cards.

What world leaders in Davos said about a potential Biden-Trump rematch

Even though it’s several months and many miles away, the US presidential election took center stage at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week.

On the heels of the Iowa caucuses where former President Donald Trump cemented a landslide victory, there appeared to be two main camps of people rubbing shoulders in the Swiss Alps — those who see 2024 as just another election year and those who see it as anything but.

The annual event is a gathering of just about anyone who is anyone in the business world, making it a magnet for heads of state and government officials as well. So it’s only natural that the US election came up in conversation.

Even Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, who tends to avoid talking about politics, couldn’t keep quiet when she was asked a question about the election.

“We are all concerned about it,” she said Wednesday. “The United States is the largest economy, the largest defense country in the world, and has been a beacon of democracy with all its upsides and downsides.”

But JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he is ambivalent about the election outcome.

“My company will survive and thrive in both,” he said, referring to potential victories by either Trump or President Joe Biden. A slew of other CEOs who attended the WEF, including Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, shared a similar view.

Up Next

Monday: Earnings from United Airlines. The Bank of Japan announces its latest interest-rate decision.

Tuesday: Earnings from Netflix, 3M, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed Martin and Haliburton.

Wednesday: Earnings from Tesla, IBM and AT&T. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest-rate decision. S&P Global releases January business surveys gauging economic activity in the US manufacturing and services sectors.

Thursday: Earnings from American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Levi Strauss & Co, Visa, Intel, T-Mobile, Comcast and Capital One Financial. The US Commerce Department releases its first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, along with December data on orders for durable goods and new home sales. The Chicago Fed releases its National Activity Index for December. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended January 20. The European Central Bank announces its latest interest-rate decision.

Friday: Earnings from American Express, Colgate-Palmolive and Booz Allen Hamilton. The US Commerce Department releases December figures on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The National Association of Realtors reports the number of home sales based on contract signings in December.

– CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.