Border Area Shakes One Month After Deadly Earthquake

Kate Hutton is among the seismologists at CalTech keeping a watch on the seismic activity near the border following Easter’s powerful earthquake.

The 7.2 Mexicali shaker left 2 people dead, destroyed buildings in Calexico and El Centro, and caused nearly $100 million in damage.

Hutton says since then, there have been around 8,000 aftershocks, most of them too small to notice.

“That normally goes on for years at an ever-decreasing frequency,” Hutton said. “So what we’re seeing is a pretty much average aftershock sequence.”

But for many of those across the Southland, feeling that jolt on Easter was not so average.

Once again, it’s prompted speculation about whether earthquakes can be predicted.

Hutton admits gains have been made in early warning systems, such as the CREWS system already in place at valley fire stations with efforts to get it into schools.

Work has been done to improve seismic sensors in the valley along the San Andreas fault.

But as far as actually predicting when the next quake will hit, “I don’t think there’s much effort in predicting the date of earthquakes far in the future,” Hutton said. “We’ve been at it for 35 years, and it doesn’t seem to be possible.”

While earthquake prediction remains elusive, seismologists agree the San Andreas is long overdue, and it’s a matter of time before a major quake strikes the Coachella Valley.

“Probably the last geologic evidence for one was about 1680, so it’s been a long time,” she said. “That’s probably the most strain on any particular area of the San Andreas, right now.”

CalTech is now trying to figure out whether the release of pressure from the Mexicali quake subtracted or added to the strain on the San Andreas and other surrounding faults.

Hutton says preparation is key: have a plan ready in case the big one hits.

Seismologists have put the odds of that happening at better than 50-50 within the next 30 years.