New study shows increased chance for major earthquake

We’ve all heard it before — be ready for the big one. But, a new study from the US Geological Survey found the chance of a magnitude eight or higher earthquake hitting California is up to about seven percent.

The last Earthquake Forecast by the US Geological Survey came out in 2008. In it, the chance of a magnitude eight or larger quake in the coming years registered at just under five percent. But a more recent study shows that number is up.

“What this is is just sort of recognizing things that people have already to a certain extent known but now are on a better theoretical and data driven basis,” said David Oglesby, Professor of Geophysics at UC Riverside.

On the other hand, the chance for a quake equal to the 6.7 Northridge earthquake decreased.

“In this current study we are acknowledging the fact that some fault segments can quite literally team up to produce a bigger earthquake than they could produce separately,” said Oglesby.

Another big factor in this latest research — time.

“The idea here being that we know the plates are moving past each other the faults have to eventually slip so if it’s been a long time since the last one there’s more readiness building up currently.,” Oglesby explained.

According to Oglesby, the findings in this latest study are another reminder to be prepared for the inevitable big one. People we talked to say it did just that.

“It makes me nervous but I try not to dwell on things that might happen and just try to be prepared and hope for the best,” said Mary Hayes.

“You really made me think about getting earthquake insurance actually,” said Dolly Elliott.

The San Andreas Fault runs right through the Coachella Valley and is considered the biggest and most dangerous in the state.