Early voting figures suggest Democratic gains in Ohio’s most Trump-friendly counties

By Ethan Cohen, CNN

(CNN) — After the first days of early voting in Ohio, a state that could help determine control of the Senate, there are clear signs Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote.

So far, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than they did two years ago, even in the most Republican parts of the state.

At this point in 2024, Republicans had a 30-percentage point lead over Democrats in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State. This year, that’s shrunk to just five points.

Voters in other counties have also shifted, including in the counties that voted most strongly for former Vice President Kamala Harris, where they’re about 25 points more Democratic.

That’s based on the latest available set of statewide data, from after early voting on Thursday. There’s evidence from the counties for which later data is available that Friday was slightly better for Republicans.

The data is just the latest sign of a positive midterm environment for Democrats, as former Sen. Sherrod Brown looks to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted, and it comes as a CNN poll finds Brown leading by six points. In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by eight points.

The overall electorate so far is about 27 points more Democratic than it was at the same point in 2024.

It’s important to note that while these signs align with other data that have shown Democrats more enthusiastic to vote this year than Republicans, it’s far from determinative.

Even party registration data doesn’t reveal who voters marked their ballots for, and these trends could change, as Republicans in recent years have much been much more likely to vote early in person or on Election Day.

Plus, it’s still very early. Ohio is at about 11% of its total early voting turnout from 2022.

That’s happening at the same time that the state’s most Democratic places are also turning out more quickly than the most Republican places.

Those counties that went most strongly for Harris were at 74% of their turnout from the same point in 2024, while the strongest Trump counties were at 67%.

That gap is similar to the one we’ve seen in Virginia, where there’s also a 7-point difference, according to data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including insights into who is voting before November.

That gap is smaller than it was earlier this month.

A Garden State shift

This partisan difference is also apparent in other states.

Voters in Ohio don’t select a party when they register, but the state reports party affiliation based on which primary a voter participates in. That’s not the case in New Jersey, where voters do register with a party.

Democrats had an unusually weak election in the Garden State in 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump there by less than 6 points, the narrowest margin for a Democrat since 1992.

The counties that were strongest for Trump have seen the biggest partisan shifts towards Democrats in pre-election voting so far, according to Catalist’s data.

The breakdown of voters who have returned ballots so far in the state’s three counties that voted for Trump by 20 points or more has shifted nearly 11 points toward Democrats compared to this point in 2024.

Turnout is also more Democratic in the strongest Harris counties, but by less than two points.

In-person early voting hasn’t started in New Jersey yet, so these shifts could also reflect Republicans continuing to shift away from voting by mail.

A shift in method

Ohio’s data also reveals a shift in the way people are voting.

Since pre-election voting started, there have been indications that 2026 would continue the trend of Americans moving away from voting by mail after the Covid-19 pandemic.

It’s early in Ohio, but while early in-person voting is at 72% of what it was at this point in 2024, mail voting is at just 25%.

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CNN’s Edward Wu contributed to this report.