In Venezuela, voters caught in Maduro’s dangerous dance are seeking answers

Analysis by Flora Charner, CNN

(CNN) — It’s a familiar scene that Venezuelans have witnessed too often over the past decade: strongman Nicolás Maduro standing on the balcony of Miraflores presidential palace in the heart of the capital Caracas declaring himself the winner of yet another election.

“I can say in front of the people of Venezuela and the world: I’m President Nicolas Maduro, re-elected president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and I will defend our democracy, our law and our people,” Maduro said, waving his fist in the air, dancing on stage and wearing a sporty jumpsuit with the colors and stars of the Venezuelan flag.

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Maduro the winner a little after midnight saying he had won with 51.2% of the votes, with 80% of the ballots counted. His main rival, opposition candidate Edmundo González, had obtained 44.2% of the votes, according to the Electoral Council.

The opposition rejected the claim, saying González had an “overwhelming” majority and that voting tallies from about 40% of ballot boxes nationwide showed he obtained 70% of the votes.

“We won, and everyone knows it,” opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said following the CNE announcement. “We won in all sectors and states of the country.”

Pots, pans and protests

Massive protests began to spread throughout the country Monday, with people banging pots and pans, accusing the government of fraud and demanding an immediate audit of the votes.

In Caracas, CNN teams witnessed dozens of national guard soldiers in riot gear repressing the mostly peaceful protests with tear gas and batons.

One protester was captured on video surrounded by a group of uniformed officers, who were slapping him on the head while holding him under an overpass.

“We want peace for Venezuela, for our family members,” a protester, who chose not to be identified, told reporting teams on the ground.

The Maduro government controls most of the country’s institutions, including the Electoral Council, as well as the Armed Forces.

In 2019, deadly anti-government protests killed more than 50 people and led to hundreds of arrests.

Previous anti-government demonstrations in 2017 and 2014 also turned violent.

The view from abroad

The United States, the UN and several other countries and institutions have called on Venezuela’s electoral commission to make polling results public.

“We have serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people. It’s critical that every vote be counted fairly and transparently, that election officials immediately share information with the opposition and independent observers without delay,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Tokyo.

The United Nations and the Carter Center, who were the only two independent election observers allowed inside the country, have also asked for a timely publication of the results.

“Electoral authorities should undertake their work independently and without interference to guarantee the free expression of the will of the electorate,” UN Secretary-General Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday.

A preliminary report from the Carter Center was scheduled to release on Tuesday morning, but the organization canceled its publication and is pulling all its staff from the country, according to a person with knowledge of the center’s plans. It is unclear when the report will be issued.

Other Latin American countries, including Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay refused to recognize the results and had their diplomatic staff in country expelled Monday.

The Maduro government accused the nations of being a “group of right-wing Washington-subordinate governments, openly committed to the most sordid fascist ideological positions.”

Some of Maduro’s close allies, like China and Cuba, were quick to congratulate the 62-year-old Venezuelan for securing his third term in office.

“My brother, your victory, which is that of the Bolivarian and Chavista people, has clearly and unequivocally defeated the pro-imperialist opposition,” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on his official X account, formerly known as Twitter.

A ‘cyberattack’ curveball

It seems unlikely Maduro’s government will pay too much attention to the concerns raised over the results. Indeed, it’s raised questions of its own, adding a further layer of confusion by making an unsubstantiated claim that a cyberattack was carried out against the country’s automated voting system and pointing the finger at the opposition.

“The CNE reported that the results from all polling stations will soon be available on its website, as the authorities have historically done thanks to the automated voting system,” Venezuela’s Attorney General Tarek William Saab said during a press conference in Caracas Monday.

Saab claimed the attack came from North Macedonia, in the Balkans, with the intention of “manipulating data that was being received by the CNE.”

He also claimed opposition leaders like Machado, Leopoldo López and Lester Toledo were behind the alleged attack without providing any proof.

An ‘October surprise for Democrats’?

Nearly 8 million people have left Venezuela since 2014, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Many have gone to Spain, Peru and Brazil with a growing number making the treacherous journey through the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panamá to head northward toward the United States.

A recent survey from Venezuelan pollster ORC Consultores found that more than 18% of the respondents would consider leaving the country if Maduro was reelected.

“My family is already thinking of leaving,” Eva Martinez said in Caracas a day after the vote.

Venezuelans were the second largest group of migrants apprehended by US Customs and Border Patrol in 2023, totaling over 260,000 encounters, a fivefold increase from 2020 when there were less than 50,000.

According to Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, such a situation “could be a really bad October surprise for the Democrats” in the upcoming US presidential election.

Two Senior Biden administration officials spoke to the media on Monday, reiterating calls for the Venezuelan government to “immediately” release specific data regarding its presidential election.

The officials declined to give specifics on the actions the US or international community would be prepared to take if the Venezuelan authorities do not release the data or if the results are determined to be fraudulent, but they did not rule out sanctions.

If Maduro takes office in January, he would be sworn in for another six-year term extending his presidency until 2031. He assumed the presidency in 2013, after his predecessor Hugo Chavez died of an apparent heart attack. Chavez established the “Chavismo” movement when he took office in 1999, his policies were dominated by nationalization and the redistribution of the nation’s huge oil wealth to the marginalized and poorest communities, as well as a constant push to protect Venezuelan sovereignty against “imperialist” powers.

The prospect of a further six years may be enough to ensure that – as has happened all too often in the past – many Venezuelans decide they have no other choice but to vote with their feet.

For those who have already made the journey, that is a depressing state of affairs.

“I want to be in my home, I want to be in my country,” sobbed Heczair Blanco, a Venezuelan woman in Buenos Aires, Argentina, after learning of Maduro’s supposed victory.

“We want Venezuela to be free and for the people’s will to be respected,” she said.

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