Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te in Hawaii: A stopover that speaks volumes

Analysis by Will Ripley, CNN

(CNN) — Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s brief stop in Hawaii may have appeared understated – no formal US reception, no grand speeches – but its implications extend far beyond floral wreaths and banquets.

On his way to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau – three of Taiwan’s remaining handful of diplomatic allies – Lai was using the visit to underscore Taiwan’s diplomatic resilience amid intensifying pressure from Beijing. It also comes as Taiwan contends with the upcoming leadership change inside the White House.

Lai will stop over for two nights in Hawaii and one night in the US territory of Guam – his first transit across US soil since taking office in May, Taipei’s presidential office told CNN.

Though billed as an unofficial transit, the trip drew scrutiny, particularly from China, which condemned Lai’s visit and is expected to respond with military drills near Taiwan. This was more than a layover; it reaffirmed Taiwan’s partnerships with the US and other democracies – alliances Beijing is eager to undermine.

China’s reaction to Lai’s visit was predictably fierce. A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office called it “a provocative act” and insisted that efforts to seek Taiwan independence “are doomed to fail.”

On Sunday, Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “firmly opposes any form of US connivance or support for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and their separatist activities.”

“China strongly condemns the US’s arranging for Lai Ching-te’s ‘stopover’ and has lodged serious protests with the US,” it said in a statement.

According to Kolas Yotaka, a former spokesperson for Lai and his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, such responses are routine.

“China’s oppression of Taiwan has intensified,” Kolas told CNN. “They’re not just targeting Taiwan – they’re targeting democratic institutions worldwide. Attacking Taiwan is part of China’s broader political agenda.”

Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing – which claims the self-governing island as its own territory – will use Lai’s trip as a pretext for military drills near Taiwan, potentially under the codename “Joint Sword-2024C.” Such exercises, often accompanied by propaganda campaigns, are a familiar tactic. Beijing has staged similar displays of force following high-profile interactions between Taiwan and the US, including former President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to California last year.

“This kind of suppression will not stop,” Kolas warned. “We have to assume the worst is yet to come.”

US-Taiwan ties

Lai’s Hawaii visit comes at a critical juncture in US-Taiwan relations. As the US transitions to a second Donald Trump administration, Taiwan’s leaders face significant uncertainties. While Trump’s first term saw increased arms sales to Taiwan, his recent comments suggesting Taiwan should “pay for its defense” hint at a more transactional approach.

Taiwan does largely pay for its defense, through billions of dollars spent on US-made weapons. And unlike Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, it is not shielded by a mutual defense treaty with the United States.

Before departing Taiwan, Lai emphasized shared democratic values in global partnerships. “I want to use the values of democracy, peace, and prosperity to expand our cooperation with allies and show the world that Taiwan is not just a model of democracy but a vital force for peace and stability,” he said.

Some critics question the value of Taiwan’s relationships with small Pacific nations, but Kolas firmly disagrees. “If a country is dismissed as small and unimportant, then Taiwan could be similarly dismissed,” she said. “These relationships are not just symbolic – they are critical for Taiwan’s security.”

Alliances with nations such as the Marshall Islands and Palau may lack the weight of those with larger powers, but offer platforms for engagement and bolster Taiwan’s global presence.

Lai’s trip, including his quietly significant Hawaii stop, highlights Taiwan’s ongoing fight for recognition and sovereignty as a frontline democracy confronting authoritarian pressure.

“No single person can save Taiwan,” Kolas said. “Only a strong alliance of democracies can make a difference.”

As Beijing ups the pressure and the global power balance shifts, Taiwan’s future depends on its ability to adapt, innovate, and rally allies. Lai’s journey across the Pacific is an attempt to do just that – a calculated move in a long, high-stakes geopolitical game.

CNN’s Eric Cheung contributed to this report

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